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Barry Fish
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21 hours ago, eFestivals said:

yup. Should never have used private firms, instead local authorities.

But it is where it is (tho now with greater local authority involvement), and hopefully it'll improve.I

 

It will need to...

 

*

 

England’s “world beating” coronavirus test and trace service is failing to reach more than half the contacts named by infected residents in Blackburn with Darwen – where health chiefs are battling a major outbreak.

Leaked analysis obtained by The Independent shows that across northwest England, the national tracing service is reaching only 52 per cent of all close contacts, leading one senior source to say: “The contact tracing service is now part of the problem we are trying to solve, not the solution.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-test-and-trace-uk-blackburn-darwen-contacts-nhs-leak-a9626381.html

 

Meanwhile, it is perhaps another measure of Scotland's success that 21 new cases is seen as cause for concern while no one bats an eyelid about 800 new cases in England.

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20 hours ago, kaosmark2 said:

On the BAME susceptibility, is there any evidence that is not entirely due to poverty, typical jobs, etc and the impact of average wealth on exposure? If so I'm not sure Scotland would do better off having a whiter population considering the economic deprivation in Glasgow compared to the large English cities. 

yes, after poverty, living conditions (multi-generational households), greater proportion within the covid-rampant environments (hospitals, care homes), etc, are taken into account there's still around double the chance of BAME infected dying. The poverty, etc, bits about doubles it again.

My brain is frying trying to think thru the exact comparative effect that would have on death rates for England/Scotland with their quite-different BAME proportions. But it would definitely increase English death rates - tho not by a huge amount because the BAME populations of both are quite small, and the difference between England/Scotland smaller still.

 

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18 hours ago, LJS said:

At a very tough guess I'd say it was about 75% of folk compared to a normal Saturday.

wow - that's shit-loads more than I've seen on my local high street. I'd say it's 50% of normal at the busiest i've seen it.

And in Bristol city centre over several weekends, I'd say footfall is around 25% of the normal.

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1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

wow - that's shit-loads more than I've seen on my local high street. I'd say it's 50% of normal at the busiest i've seen it.

And in Bristol city centre over several weekends, I'd say footfall is around 25% of the normal.

I might have it wrong but I'd also say Glasgow was maybe 50% of normal. I wonder if the whole lockdown thing is causing folk to shop nearer home.  I caught the bus to Glasgow. There were only 3 folk on it. It would normally be pretty full on a Saturday. I guess we will get some sort of figures on footfall at some stage.

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22 hours ago, kaosmark2 said:

On the BAME susceptibility, is there any evidence that is not entirely due to poverty, typical jobs, etc and the impact of average wealth on exposure? If so I'm not sure Scotland would do better off having a whiter population considering the economic deprivation in Glasgow compared to the large English cities. 

There is some evidence to suggest that even controlled for those factors it seems to impact black people and Bangladesh Asians more. However as with a lot of the Covid research it isn't particularly strong.

Interestingly I have a friend in research who says that Covid is a great area now, funding easier to get, while a lot less difficulty getting past ethics stage.

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3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

wow - that's shit-loads more than I've seen on my local high street. I'd say it's 50% of normal at the busiest i've seen it.

And in Bristol city centre over several weekends, I'd say footfall is around 25% of the normal.

My village (admittedly a tourist hot spot)  is as busy, possibly busier than I've ever seen it. Massive traffic tailbacks all day getting in to and through (we are on the main route through the Lake District), pavements full of people, although that might be exaggerated by people queuing outside  rather than inside shops. Car parks all full and by the lake, not a bench or bit of wall to sit on. 

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2 minutes ago, philipsteak said:

My village (admittedly a tourist hot spot)  is as busy, possibly busier than I've ever seen it. Massive traffic tailbacks all day getting in to and through (we are on the main route through the Lake District), pavements full of people, although that might be exaggerated by people queuing outside  rather than inside shops. Car parks all full and by the lake, not a bench or bit of wall to sit on. 

I guess a big issue is that a lot of people who would be holidaying abroad are instead doing day trips or holidays in Britain. I would expect British tourists destinations to become very busy now we are in school holiday territory.

Personally we are planning camping trips close to home, but are going to wait to see how things play out before visiting one of the more touristy places.

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1 minute ago, pink_triangle said:

I guess a big issue is that a lot of people who would be holidaying abroad are instead doing day trips or holidays in Britain. I would expect British tourists destinations to become very busy now we are in school holiday territory.

Personally we are planning camping trips close to home, but are going to wait to see how things play out before visiting one of the more touristy places.

It's been busy here for a while now, but really stepped up a gear a week or so ago. I still think quite a lot are day trippers, probably a higher percentage than usual as it does quieten off a bit from early evening (still busy though) and not all accommodation is open yet, and some, including us, are on reduced occupancy. 

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3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

yes, after poverty, living conditions (multi-generational households), greater proportion within the covid-rampant environments (hospitals, care homes), etc, are taken into account there's still around double the chance of BAME infected dying. The poverty, etc, bits about doubles it again.

My brain is frying trying to think thru the exact comparative effect that would have on death rates for England/Scotland with their quite-different BAME proportions. But it would definitely increase English death rates - tho not by a huge amount because the BAME populations of both are quite small, and the difference between England/Scotland smaller still.

How have they controlled for such factors accurately? Mis-estimated controls for social factors is historically something that's been done very badly. 

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3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

wow - that's shit-loads more than I've seen on my local high street. I'd say it's 50% of normal at the busiest i've seen it.

And in Bristol city centre over several weekends, I'd say footfall is around 25% of the normal.

It's definitely been a fair bit below 25% until yesterday, although yesterday (visually) was the busiest yet. 

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17 hours ago, LJS said:

It's not just about the calendar, it's about the R number/ number of infections in society.

only if that's what you decide. 

It's not obligatory to chase down every infection to attempt to remove the infection from society, and neither is it possible. 

And so even Perfect Nic has to make a choice about how many Scots she's going to leave exposed to possible covid death - but what Perfect Nic doesn't have to think about is the costs of her choice, because someone else is paying.

Edited by eFestivals
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1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

only if that's what you decide. 

It's not obligatory to chase down every infection to attempt to remove the infection from society, and neither is it possible. 

It is, however, desirable to try.

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

And so even Perfect Nic has to make a choice about how many Scots she's going to leave exposed to possible covid death 

I don't disagree, although I might have phrased it differently.

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

butwhat Perfect Nic doesn't have to think about is the costs of her choice, because someone else is paying.

We're all paying, ultimately.

As you are well aware, sturgeon would prefer it if 'someone else" wasn't paying but she has no choice other than to work with the system we have.

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9 minutes ago, LJS said:

It is, however, desirable to try.

it's worth trying the impossible...? :lol:

That would only make you stupid. 

 

Quote

I don't disagree, although I might have phrased it differently.

But you just said you do disagree, by saying she should be aiming for the impossible. :rolleyes: 

Why not instead ask her what her target is, or have her say? Then you wouldn't be believing that she's aiming for something which (I very much hope) she isn't. If she is, Scotland has bigger problems than anyone realised.

 

Quote

We're all paying, ultimately.

but some are paying more than others when it comes to Scotland, even in normal times. :rolleyes:

No one is stopping Nic raising taxes to pay for the extra costs she's putting on everyone. Odd how no one in Scotland ever suggests that she does, I guess it's because Scotland is more righteous than the rest of the UK.

 

Quote

As you are well aware, sturgeon would prefer it if 'someone else" wasn't paying but she has no choice other than to work with the system we have.

:lol: 

She could put up taxes to do what you say. She doesn't.

She could return the Barnet extra. She doesn't.

She (and you) could put front and centre how your great idea will reduce the lifestyles of people on Scotland. You don't.

You have no choice but to keep on claiming lies. Without the lies your dream of impoverishing Scotland dies.

Edited by eFestivals
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@LJS - Out of curiosity, since I saw you mentioned going to a restaurant, do you think you'd have done the same if you lived in England?

(You know where I personally stand risk/safety wise, but I'm interested in the argument of perceived extra caution -> increased perceived safety -> stronger demand -> stronger economic recovery).

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1 hour ago, JoshD said:

@LJS - Out of curiosity, since I saw you mentioned going to a restaurant, do you think you'd have done the same if you lived in England?

(You know where I personally stand risk/safety wise, but I'm interested in the argument of perceived extra caution -> increased perceived safety -> stronger demand -> stronger economic recovery).

Good question & one which i didn't read and instantly have an answer to.

I guess I'd certainly have given it more thought if I stayed in England. I don't have the same level of trust in the UK government as I do in the Scottish government on the issue of leaving lockdown - there are 2 reasons for this. 

Firstly the Scottish government's policy has been clear and consistent and its communication has generally been pretty good. There is a clear sense that they wouldn't be giving the go-ahead for restaurants to open if they didn't believe the risk was pretty low. I do not have the same faith in the UK government.

Secondly, anyone who instinctively trusts anything Boris Johnson says is capable of a level of faith way beyond what I could imagine having.

On the other hand, Scotland has opened pubs and, after some thought we had some drinks in the house on saturday night rather than going to the pub either before or after our meal. I do think opening pubs is the riskiest of the lockdown easing measures by a distance

The flip side of all this is that if we want pubs and restaurants to survive (which i do) we will need to go out and spend money  in them. I am one of the fortunate ones who has worked all the way through this and as a result of that & the lack of opportunity to fritter cash away, I find myself with money in the bank at the end of each month. It really needs folk like me to get out and spend in order to try and breathe some life into the economy.

So after all that waffle, would I have gone out for my meal if i lived in England? - I think I might have left it a week or two just to see how things were looking - it's hard to be certain that the virus is really under control south of the border. 

I should add that it might well make a difference where i lived and how I perceived things were going in my local area.

 

 

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11 hours ago, LJS said:

would I have gone out for my meal if i lived in England? - I think I might have left it a week or two just to see how things were looking

which is pretty much what's happening in England as far as I can see.

I'm out for my first evening beer tomorrow, as long as one of the locals allows walk-ins and isn't full - and i'm not particularly hopeful with that, as the first two on the list are 'garden'-only  (yard) and they're small yards.

 

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The independence movement couldn't be further removed from Russia which is why Alex Salmond has a show on Russia Today.  I'm not saying that the SNP are in lock-step with the Kremlin but this seems a silly statement to make.  Surely it's easy to say "Russian interference is a problem and they seek to sew disruption by backing all sides to polarise debate. We must be vigilant of any future interference, defense isn't devolved but we are happy to work with Westminister to protect our democracy."

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Starmer has asked her to condemn the show which she has 'softly' in the past. Problem is shes currently trying to build bridges with Salmond before his book comes out. A few suggestions in the press it may send the SNP all Judean People's front vs The People's Front of Judea and is the prelude to him setting up a new party.

Salmond and Sillars might split the vote and be the best chance Labour have of getting Scotland back (which I still don't think is a very strong one)

Edited by lost
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