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18 minutes ago, lost said:

Nope it puts their names to brexit. The customs union brexit is the one Jez and labour wants and so they'd be judged on how successful that would be. As you said it would pass and so be mad for the Lib Dem's to put their names to it.

Strategically it makes more sense to let labour reveal themselves as a leave party.

They voted for it at the indicative votes stage. And at this stage, with BJ probably having enough votes for his deal, Labour's spoiling amendments are the best way forward. Not voting for it and with the govt on the amendment points them as pro Tory hard brexit (and coalition 2.0)

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ERG says the customs union amendment (heard BEFORE  the bill is voted on) will wreck Brexit 

Lib dems would be crazy to not vote for it

 

 

 

Edited by zahidf

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1 hour ago, zahidf said:

They voted for it at the indicative votes stage. And at this stage, with BJ probably having enough votes for his deal, Labour's spoiling amendments are the best way forward. Not voting for it and with the govt on the amendment points them as pro Tory hard brexit (and coalition 2.0)

Before changing policy sent them upto 2nd in the polls. If they vote for a Corbyn brexit to stop a Tory brexit they will be back down to third possibly fourth. 

The best way to stop brexit now is for labour to get behind the Swinson amendment for a 2nd ref and help the lib dems stop it. Anyone voting against or abstaining as you say is support for the Boris deal and brexit.

Edited by lost

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1 hour ago, zahidf said:

They voted for it at the indicative votes stage. And at this stage, with BJ probably having enough votes for his deal, Labour's spoiling amendments are the best way forward. Not voting for it and with the govt on the amendment points them as pro Tory hard brexit (and coalition 2.0)

Serious questions but how do you think Lib Dems should differentiate themselves from labour over Brexit. I get the impression that you think they should just agree with labour about everything. Therefore what is the point of the Lib Dems?

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1 minute ago, pink_triangle said:

Serious questions but how do you think Lib Dems should differentiate themselves from labour over Brexit. I get the impression that you think they should just agree with labour about everything. Therefore what is the point of the Lib Dems?

Well, now, they need to stop the Boris bill going though really. Best way to do that is agree the amendment for a CU. And yes, labour should agree to vote for a second referendum on the bill. 

At an election, they are the revoke party. I can see why they are doing that, but since they are still likely to be well short of a majority govt, they are setting themselves to disappoint voters when they change their position on it if they are part of a coalition government.

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13 minutes ago, lost said:

Before changing policy sent them upto 2nd in the polls. If they vote for a Corbyn brexit to stop a Tory brexit they will be back down to third possibly fourth. 

The best way to stop brexit now is for labour to get behind the Swinson amendment for a 2nd ref and help the lib dems stop it. Anyone voting against or abstaining as you say is support for the Boris deal and brexit.

Vote for a CU amendment isn't a Corbyn brexit. If it gets through, labour will still vote against the bill, they'll just have the CU as govt policy if it passes.

As above, starmer says labour supports a second refnedum amendment. But you can vote and pass both amendments, so it's not one or the other.  The second referendum amendment is on Boris's bill anyway

 

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6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Vote for a CU amendment isn't a Corbyn brexit. If it gets through, labour will still vote against the bill, they'll just have the CU as govt policy if it passes.

As above, starmer says labour supports a second refnedum amendment. But you can vote and pass both amendments, so it's not one or the other.  The second referendum amendment is on Boris's bill anyway

 

Corbyns Brexit is the CU. The whole reason he specifically wants it on the ballot paper over Boris's deal and hasn't backed the ref against the tory deal is because he thinks it will win over the tory deal being put to the public.

Edited by lost

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9 minutes ago, lost said:

Corbyns Brexit is the CU. The whole reason he specifically wants it on the ballot paper over Boris's deal and hasn't backed the ref against the tory deal is because he thinks it will win over the tory deal being put to the public.

Starmer said labour will back the second referendum amendment as above. I've not seen anything which contradicts that since. Labour policy is for a second referendum with remain as an option.

So what do you think will happen if the CU amendment passes? 

Edited by zahidf

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10 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Starmer said labour will back the second referendum amendment as above. I've not seen anything which contradicts that since. 

So what do you think will happen if the CU amendment passes? 

well some sort of Cu deal being offered to the public vs remain as I said. Personally I'd like a party to vote for at the next election who haven't supported any sort of leave option as the whole thing has been a complete disaster. If you want to leave with a CU you can vote labour or for one of the politicians who support this amendment. I don't.

Also Starmer has mentioned the 2nd ref and Jez has come out a denied it a number of times soon after so I'll take that with a pinch of salt. We don't know which way labour are going to go until Mcdonnell does a job on Milne like he has Karie Murphy and Amy Jackson.

Edited by lost

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3 minutes ago, lost said:

well some sort of Cu deal being offered to the public vs remain as I said. Personally I'd like a party to vote for at the next election who haven't supported any sort of leave option as the whole thing has been a complete disaster. If you want to leave with a CU you can vote labour or for one of the politicians who support this amendment. I don't.

So you don't want the Lib dems to work towards softening brexit at all then?

I'd be fine with a referendum with a softer brexit option. It's better than the incompetence of the first referendum in 2016. I think most sensible remainers should see that as the best realistic option.

And you don't think Boris will pull the bill if the CU/refenerdum  amendment passes? 

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15 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

I'd be fine with a referendum with a softer brexit option. It's better than the incompetence of the first referendum in 2016. I think most sensible remainers should see that as the best realistic option.

 

I can as well, but it would be mad for Lib Dems to be strongly in favour of this option. Politically they need to be more remainy than labour.

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25 minutes ago, zahidf said:

So you don't want the Lib dems to work towards softening brexit at all then?

Nope because it won't please anyone. We are too far down the road. If you want a soft brexit by all means vote labour but I can't see there being many agreeing with you. People have now moved to full leave vs remain.

Leave EU have approved on the Tory brexit plan so if its rejected in a ref/election we can specifically say Leave EU's plan has been rejected. They can't say it wasn't real brexit which is why it was rejected.

Edited by lost

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33 minutes ago, lost said:

Nope because it won't please anyone. We are too far down the road. If you want a soft brexit by all means vote labour but I can't see there being many agreeing with you. People have now moved to full leave vs remain.

Leave EU have approved on the Tory brexit plan so if its rejected in a ref/election we can specifically say Leave EU's plan has been rejected. They can't say it wasn't real brexit which is why it was rejected.

Farage has definitely not given the OK to Boris 's plan. So you're wrong to say that, there will be people saying Boris's Brexit isn't 'proper'

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37 minutes ago, pink_triangle said:

I can as well, but it would be mad for Lib Dems to be strongly in favour of this option. Politically they need to be more remainy than labour.

I don't think they'll suffer electorally with their voters for softening brexit whilst saying they'll do all they can do stop it. It's the responsible thing to do. 

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5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Farage has definitely not given the OK to Boris 's plan. So you're wrong to say that, there will be people saying Boris's Brexit isn't 'proper'

If Banks backs it though Farage is losing funding so he can shout at the moon.

Edited by lost

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18 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I don't think they'll suffer electorally with their voters for softening brexit whilst saying they'll do all they can do stop it. It's the responsible thing to do. 

Who knows. As far as I could hear on the news yesterday at the protest when it was all lib dem and SNP flags their voters were shouting "Sttopp Brrexxit!!" Not 

"Conduct a new set of negotiations, and agree a new customs union!!!"

Edited by lost

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Excellent thread on the issue for the govt next week. And why lib dems supporting a customs union amendment is a no brainer.

 

 

 

 

 

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Boris can overturn any CU amendment with a majority gained after a GE so it could in effect force the Tories into a deal with the Brexit party and a harder brexit. Still better to force a referendum this parliament for the remainers.

We are still back where we were. The only reason parliament needing to be handcuffed and dragged along is because the leader of the opposition is voter kryptonite.  

Edited by lost

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1 hour ago, lost said:

Boris can overturn any CU amendment with a majority gained after a GE so it could in effect force the Tories into a deal with the Brexit party and a harder brexit. Still better to force a referendum this parliament for the remainers.

We are still back where we were. The only reason parliament needing to be handcuffed and dragged along is because the leader of the opposition is voter kryptonite.  

It's not one or the other though on amendments.

 

Anyway, votes are next week. Sure they'll be loads more coming up 

Edited by zahidf

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1 hour ago, lost said:

Boris can overturn any CU amendment with a majority gained after a GE so it could in effect force the Tories into a deal with the Brexit party and a harder brexit. Still better to force a referendum this parliament for the remainers.

We are still back where we were. The only reason parliament needing to be handcuffed and dragged along is because the leader of the opposition is voter kryptonite.  

If we have an election before Brexit, Boris will need to choose between campaigning on the basis of his deal with the likelihood of the Brexit party opposing him & splitting the Brexit vote or teaming up with the Brexit party and campaigning for a no deal Brexit. Both options risk the Tories losing votes.

The state of the labour party makes an outright win for them but it's far from certain that Boris would win the majority he needs.

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19 hours ago, zahidf said:

Looks like a customs union amendment will pass

:lol:

That'll require the SNP to actually vote for what they say they'll support. It didn't happen last time.

Edited by eFestivals

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10 hours ago, LJS said:

If we have an election before Brexit, Boris will need to choose between campaigning on the basis of his deal with the likelihood of the Brexit party opposing him & splitting the Brexit vote or teaming up with the Brexit party and campaigning for a no deal Brexit. Both options risk the Tories losing votes.

The state of the labour party makes an outright win for them but it's far from certain that Boris would win the majority he needs.

Worryingly, I reckon than the polls are reflecting the Tory voters drifting already.  If the centre right tories, who voted remain, are going to desert, then they already have.....like me.  There'll be some still on the fence and his behaviour with the letters will put some off, but many will have had the last straw before now.

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11 minutes ago, gary1979666 said:

Worryingly, I reckon than the polls are reflecting the Tory voters drifting already.  If the centre right tories, who voted remain, are going to desert, then they already have.....like me.  There'll be some still on the fence and his behaviour with the letters will put some off, but many will have had the last straw before now.

I think that's a reason why Lib Dems are correct for not always following labour lead as some would like. There are definitely Tory votes up for grabs and accepting a role as labours junior party for Brexit isn't the way to get them.

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22 hours ago, zahidf said:

Looks like a customs union amendment will pass , esp as it will now have DUP support

 

 

 

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