El Matador
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Posts posted by El Matador
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2 hours ago, steviewevie said:
And yet its another 5 weeks until we can legally meet friends or family indoors
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14 minutes ago, incident said:
It's not going to almost zero unless something goes dramatically wrong. 1st doses are still happening and will continue to do so, they're just being cautious about scheduling appointments too far ahead until they know how much excess they have after second doses.
I'm pretty confident in saying that they'll still do well over a million first doses every week in April (and that's my cautious "don't-want-to-look-a-tit" revised downward estimate).
Also first doses are becoming less important in terms of impact on deaths and hospitalisations
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2 hours ago, JoeyT said:
I think it's all about the hospitalisations and deaths figure as well going forward isn't it?
Providing those don't start stalling / increasing then we're on a good track.
Positive cases amongst those who are at very minimal risk is the ideal scenario.
Agreed. Cases are becomingly increasingly irrelevant with each passing day.
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8 minutes ago, jparx said:
I think people are generally accepting that the road map could slip, but a slip of a month or two, not the rest of the year. We keep seeing data that lockdown compliance is high, which I’m not sure I entirely trust (or I live in a particularly rebellious area..), but it will drop through the floor if we’re asked to keep these things up because of, essentially, hypotheticals. Especially if we also can’t travel internationally.
I can't think of a single person I know that would be accepting of the road map slipping by a month or so.
There is literally not one piece of data that suggests that any delay is required. If anything, all the data suggests that we can accelerate lifting restrictions.
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7 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:
What's the point in an anti lockdown protest of this size now? I get that it's a worldwide movement and happened across many countries but why bother here?
The real protesting happens online - I'm not sure the protest bill, which WILL be passed especially now, is actually the end of the world we think it is. Iraq war had a huge protest movement and made no difference- it hasn't made a difference for decades now.
When they regulate the Internet is when freedom is truly lost
Do you think extinction rebellion would have received the same level of publicity if they'd ran an online petition instead?
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8 hours ago, Ozanne said:
That’s why we have the roadmap in place to monitor if those increases case levels don’t lead to anything more serious before we open up more.
There hasn't been an increase in cases though in which case there's no reason to wait and see
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1 minute ago, zahidf said:
I haven't said that. I've been fairly open about saying rule of 6 should be allowed for outside asap
Just to be clear I wasn't having a go at you.
There is however a high degree of hypocrisy amongst a lot of people, including the media, this morning.
The tweet in the original post is an example. What difference does it make whether its a vigil, a protest, a celebration etc.
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Just now, zahidf said:
Doesn't really spread at any outdoor settings, especially if it's socially distant. Shame the police decide to kettle them so they couldn't socially distance.
I completely agree. So why are we only allowed to meet one other person outdoors for the next 2 weeks?
A lot of people that are fully supportive of the ludicrously over cautious roadmap, now suddenly of the opinion that its fine for 100's of people to meet outdoors.
Can't have it both ways.
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9 hours ago, Ozanne said:
Well known scientific fact that covid doesn't spread at vigils, only at protests.
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59 minutes ago, zahidf said:
The idea that we should still be living under restrictions for another 15 weeks is becoming increasingly hard to defend.
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5 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:
So there's the first minister of wales saying no normality this year AND the PM of Ireland telling you hospitality middle of summer, yet people think there will be some kind of Euros boom in England? Whatever Boris says on Monday is a lie to win votes in May. We aren't getting anything good for a while yet.
Not a conspiracy theory, just what the scientists will want. And probably the right thing to do, it's just very hard to accept losing another year especially on a festival forum
Why? Last year hospitalisations and deaths were very low over summer and that was with a peak in March/April. This year the peak was in January and we're vaccinating at an unbelievable rate.
Scientists will always be cautious as they have nothing to gain by being anything else. It's the role of the government to balance the science versus all the other considerations. I don't see any reason why we can't get rid of social distancing by the summer.
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6 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:
Not a chance- they might aim for that but realistically will there be indoor events in winter? Id be very surprised
If there aren't indoor events this winter then when will there be indoor events again? Every adult that wants the vaccine will have had both doses. No reason to delay getting on with normal life.
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7 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:
"July with social distancing" means social distancing is with us until summer 2022 surely? With maybe an August lifting perhaps, putting it back in when schools return in September ahead of winter?
If social distancing is still enforced after the whole country has been vaccinated, we might as well throw the towel in and accept that we're living in 1984.
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2 hours ago, Leyrulion said:
Reports of a time scale of between May and August for hospitality opening.
If indoor hospitality isn't open until August that surely finishes any chance of a festival season this year.
I can't believe it's realistic that it'll be August until indoor household mixing and hospitality are allowed. By the end of March half the population will have had their first dose. Can't see the justification for then waiting another 4 months to allow people to meet indoors.
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1 hour ago, CaledonianGonzo said:
If Be Here Now is so good then how come it also has My Big Mouth and Fade In-Out on it?
I love fade in-out
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1 hour ago, gooner1990 said:
All the ‘experts’ are starting to say different things.
it’s like the press actively search out someone with a different opinion to what’s knocking about that day to just fill some blank pages.
When you read the article, the expert says that if you lifted all restrictions now then you'd have a large wave which I think most people wouldn't argue with. Clickbait essentially.
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12 minutes ago, Ozanne said:
Vaccination update:
Wonder if we'll see an impact due to the weather next week. Expect there'll be a lot more cancellations and no shows. Hopefully can find a way to maintain the progress.
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1 hour ago, MrBarry465 said:
There will still be restrictions in place while the vaccine is being rolled out.
It will be a gradual lowering of restrictions as it continues.
Completely agree. The current restrictions won't be sustainable once there's a big drop in numbers though.
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8 hours ago, zahidf said:
Do they get a choice in the matter? That's a massive change from what's been said so far.
I dont believe the tory govt will go for that
To put it on starker terms, once the vulnerable people are vaccinated, ill be out living my life. And I won't be the only one. I'm willing to take my chances and I'm not staying locked in waiting for a vaccine.
Its the role of the government to weigh up the scientific advice against all the other issues. If hospitalisations and deaths are back down towards summer levels with the vaccine rollout going to plan, there's no way that the government will be keeping these restrictions in place, no matter what the scientific advice is.
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51 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:
Some do yes but not everyone that currently is - so many offices full for example.
Is there evidence for that?
I have to go into my office in Central London some days and everywhere around there is deserted.
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29 minutes ago, Matt42 said:
You will still hear people going on about Sweden without even looking at the numbers.
They've had considerably less deaths per head of population than the UK and their numbers have been on a downward trend for weeks.
There's obviously a number of variables involved, but I don't think we're in a position to say that Sweden have failed.
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6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:
I presume you haven’t seen how Australia , France and others have managed with curfews amongst the measures imposed .... ? Any limiting of contacts reduces the spread ...
I can't see how a curfew has any significant impact. The streets are hardly full of people after 10pm.
Its also a move that makes me extremely uncomfortable from a civil liberty point of view.
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1 hour ago, kalifire said:
Mandatory masks indoors? Restriction on distance you can be from home? Curfews at night?
I struggle to see how any of those would make a significant impact. School closure is the only tool left that has the potential to make any change in my opinion.
Other measures feels like doing something in order to be seen to be doing something.
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2 hours ago, st dan said:
Although you could argue that these falling cases are due to the tiered restrictions rather than the national lockdown - which hasn’t really had enough take to take some effect yet - although that will likely improve the data even further.
Agreed. Numbers clearly on the way down in most areas before the lockdown.
If anything I'd say the numbers call into question whether this national lockdown was necessary or whether the regional approach was working.
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When will this shit end?
in Chat
Posted
Data not dates.
There is not one single piece of data that suggests that outdoor mixing will result in a spike in hospitalisations. But yes let's wait 5 weeks to find out what we already know.