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fur_q

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Posts posted by fur_q

  2. Weather 2017

    in Chat

    Posted

    1 minute ago, waterfalls212434 said:

    where is the link to see these `runs` anyway?

    Well here's the netweather chart viewer, I'm presuming you don't want the api to the noaa grib files 

  6. The state of the ground.

    in Chat

    Posted

    8 hours ago, Keithy said:

    The wellies v boots thing is very straightforward. Welly wearers are idiots and walking boots people are just better.

    You wouldn't go hiking or trekking across muddy fields for 5 days in wellies, so why do it at Glastonbury?!

    Yet thousands of agricultural worker manage to long days on thier feet in wellies with no issues. 

  7. Weather 2017

    in Chat

    Posted

    1 minute ago, big__phil said:

    @fur_q nicely done. So on the top graph, what do the lines represent - an average? (Please explain to me like I'm a toddler)

    Sorry forgot to say the line linear trends, i.e. Best line of best fit between the points, 1 per run 

  8. Weather 2017

    in Chat

    Posted

    Just re-run my GFS ensemble analysis again using today's  06z

     

    160617_6z_plot.pngas per before:- 

    X axis is total accumulated daily rainfall 

    Y axis is the day by date 

     

    Each GFS ensemble member is represented by the points (dots  - different colours represent the 4 different runs in the last 24 hours), the lines are the linear trends.

    The so the points represent the range of likely outcomes and the more tightly they are clustered (closer together) across the x axis the more confidence we have in the forecast

     

     

     

    Another way of visualising the same data :-

     

     

    160617_6hz_bar.png 

     

    Here  X axis = the day by date, Y axis = count of ensemble forecast members (84  (21 per run x 4 runs)) broken down by the level of rain they are forecasting 

     

    So light green is good (minimal rainfall) and dark brown is bad (lots of rainfall) more green you can see = better chance of minimal rainfall

     

     

    • Upvote 2

  10. Weather 2017

    in Chat

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

    I'm not sure why, unless you're referring the year I started doubling up on hats?

    Funny how memory works. I have three clear memories of 2014 weather.

    * Sitting on the grass, drinking Brothers from a 2l bottle, belligerently ignoring offers of suncream. The wind had pulled me into a false sense of security!

    * Visiting the medical tent, being prescribed a sombrero for 'weeping sores'. I actually found the wide rimmed hat directly on my highly burnt head too scratchy, so I purchased a second hat to go underneath. I quite liked the combination...

    * Being caught out by the sudden appearance of mud, so getting some waiders from a market stall, which had a fold in them, sending me to the medical tent again for crutches the day after.

    The thing is, the timeline is all messed up in my head. I thought the mud was the night of the football. Sunburn on Wednesday, dodgy ankle on Thursday, waving crutches at The Black Eyed Peas Friday. But this news report from the time backs you up - no rain Thursday. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/music/2004/jun/25/glastonbury2004.glastonbury3 

    What's more, I remember sitting on the floor drinking Brothers before I'd made any visits to the medical tent, so when the hell was that if there was rain on Wednesday?

     

    It absolutely tanked down all Tuesday night in 04 it was quite muddy on the Wednesday but Thursday was really sunny and dried t up. 

  11. flushing toilets

    in Chat

    Posted

    1 hour ago, mashedonmud said:

    How not to use the toilets at Glastonbury.

    Take some pills. (this is known to make you stand at the urinals for far to long making awkward chat with another soul who's straining for a piss that their body will not allow)

    Take some mandy. (as above)

    Snort a line. (the receiver of the line will spend the next two hours so busy chatting excitedly about themselves that they'll forget all about needing either a piss or a shit) Repeat after two hours.

    Drop some acid ( This will result in you spending a lot of time at the long drops, mainly because of the pretty colours, contorted faces of passer bys and the all out attack on the senses. Thats some far out shit man.)

     

    I know nothing of these experiences and base my study on pure guess work. I would never encourage such activities but all seem much more attractive tham imodium due to the side effects that imodium doesn't give.:rofl:

     I once came up  (very strongly and very suddenly)  on some shrooms at the exact moment I was pissing in a urinal unfortunately it was one of those back to back (or should that be front to front) ounes so I was stood pissing and laughing hysterically whilst staring into the face of the person pissing in the opposite urinal. It  was on the Thursday of 2005 (mega storm night) so the urinal incident ended up being one of the least surreal moment of the night... Think I'm starting to sound a bit like @Yoghurt on a Stick here. 

  12. Weather 2017

    in Chat

    Posted

    Just now, Mr.Tease said:

    For some reason the forecast always seem to underestimate the Tempsford by 3 or so degrees- usually they get higher the near it gets. 

    Meteorological temps are always the ambient temp in shade so in the sun it will always feel hotter. I believe the gfs model is also known to understate temp highs  for Europe. 

  15. Weather 2017

    in Chat

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Drfoxxx said:

    Can anyone explain how if the ground is baked rain is just going to run off? Surely it'd get soaked up? 

    The soil is clay, mood soil will tend to have lots of tiny air pockets witch help the water to drain through the soil, Dry compacted clay will have amost non of these are pockets and so the water will not have have anywhere to go. 

  17. Packing light when taking a toddler

    in Chat

    Posted · Edited by fur_q

    Depending on the design of your tent you should be able to shut the inner door with the zippers at the top of the door rather than at the bottom witch will prevent a toddler escaping. 

     

    Food wise we took some of  those foil pouches with the screw top lids of fruit purée for snacks/breakfasts and taught daughter to suck the contents out beforehand so we didn't need to bother with bowls.  

     

    Ntc tent in the kids field do baby baths at set times witch can be handy and in 2010 when it was mega hot the had a paddling pool set up all the time, great for when daughter was too hot during the day. 

     

    Cafe in the kids kids field is also good for children's food. 

     

    These is a tent in cockmill that is open the hours  the kids field isn't closed for bottle feeding/changing/getting out of the elements and recharging 

  22. Any food & drinks tips for a newbie?

    in Chat

    Posted

    As others have said don't bother planning to go back to your tent during the day to prep food but I always take stuff for breakfast mainly because I get really hungry/low blood sugar in the morning and can't be bothered to walk to get food and definitely don't want to queuing when I've just woken up. 

    In previous year I've taken stuff to make a fry up as I've gone with several people and taken a big super insulted cool box plus a couple of gas stoves. This year I'm on my own so planning on pots of rice pudding, flapjacks and dried fruit plus a tiny alcohol stove for fresh coffee other than that I'll just take a few bags of nuts as they're quite good in terms of size/weight to calorie ratio. 

  24. Weather 2017

    in Chat

    Posted

    1 hour ago, dingbat2 said:

    Iworse still getting those bastard wellies off at 3 in the morning in the pitch black, off my head. Many a time have I nearly given up getting those claggy bastards off and slept in my wellies, but I have always managed it so far. 

     

    Sit down in the inner bit of your tent with your feet outside. 

    Put your (wellied) feet in a bin bag

    Then grab a boot through the bag, pull off (fnarr) and repeat. 

    • Upvote 1

  25. Glastocam!

    in Chat

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

    It was bigger, but actually had a lower capacity, for reasons that can only be found in last year's threads somewhere.

    No they both had exactly the same internal dimensions. 

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