Aragorn
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Everything posted by Aragorn
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Still some space at bushy but has filled up alot
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We arrived at gate A at 9:40am by coach. By 11am we were in
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Disappointed regarding Thursday. Looked like 2 days of sun. But almost certainly showers and sun now
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Met office
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Met Office Wednesday and Thursday is sexy
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The UKMO is abit of a mess.
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Yes and the UKMO which im very keen to see
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same - £300
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The ECWMF Ensemble mean also shows a low incursion
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The UKMO is not great - a low over the bay of biscay and a low to the north squeeze out the high by Wednesday. Slightly worrying as this a decent model
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As said most of the runs on the 00z do not bring that low in as severely. One to put aside
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Operational was somewhat an outlier I terms of air pressure
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Pub run on the way lol
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12z ensembles are decent. Minimal rain.
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And the 18z is always considered the pub run lol as it often throws up scorching in summer and snow dumpings in winter
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The other thing to note is its best to compare 06z with previous 06z and 12z with previous 12z etc.
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Need to look at the ensembles rather than 1 run. The operational could easily be an outlier
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Not a bad run
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Yes is the simple answer. By Sunday night we should have a very good idea of the chances of a total washout or not. Then it's down to the details from Monday.
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I really wouldn't trust gfs precip charts, they tend to over egg temps aswell.
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you can see from the T850s the cold air being drawn down - air flows anti-clockwise around low pressure. The 850 temp is 0 which means the ground temp is significantly cool for this time of year. On the plus side Northerlies tend to have a fairly dry air feed apart from on coasts
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The UKMO is not to bad - shows this but its pretty much gone inside 3 hours on Sunday
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THE UKMO up to Tuesday is not so favourable
