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Everything posted by Lycra

  1. It's no good vaccinating the over 50s & vulnerable and opening up society only to create a third wave of hospitalizations, yet that is precisely what we could do. Having taken many of the vulnerable and old the virus has mutated to infect more & more of the young. This is evidenced by the shifting demographic of covid patients. It's no good saving granny only to fill hospital beds with the young. You may suggest that this won't happen, but it already is. Our ITU's are full and overflowing, not with the old & the vulnerable, but with younger patients who have a better chance of recovery from covid and recovery from intubation. Stopping the virus will take more than vaccinating I've over 50s and vulnerable.
  2. Members of Sage have already given the expectations of the way ahead so it's difficult for government to come up with a plan which raises optimism for gigs/festivals this summer. The problem goes beyond what's happening on the UK however as so much of the music industry is interlinked across Europe, and even further afield. Countries will reopen at different times and this places an additional component arranging band tours, gigs & festivals. Many will want to get out and back on the road but equally some many be more cautious. And some may not want to tour again until the pandemic is all over and they can do it like before. 🤔
  3. In listing so many metrics it highlights the complexity of generating an X = Y scenario when it comes to restrictions.
  4. Thats what the furlough scheme is designed to do. Effectively mothball companies. Asking people & companies to work on projects which have no realistic prospect of happening wastes more money than simply paying them to stay home. But financial support alone will not be enough to get the industry going. In its submissions this week the industry asked for a restart date for capacity crowds and said social distancing and festivals were incompatible. Without this projects cannot be planned & artiste tours scheduled.
  5. Fair play to them, they can only ask. Point is though underwriting is always about insuring against a risk that you don't expect to happen. In that sense I can foresee government offering assistance at future date beyond which the risk of cancellation is greatly reduced. Sadly I don't think that date will encompass Glastonbury. Insurance alone cannot save summer festivals.
  6. The actions of Trump over the last few days are impeachable in their own right. First attempting to coerce officials, now incitement to riot!
  7. Sounds like the guy in Glastonbury who owns the lighting shop just been told by his wife she's ovulating.
  8. Whilst we many be ambitious in our targets that's no bad thing. Just look what's happening on the continent right now. In Germany many vaccination centres have had to temporarily shutter due lack of vaccine. The French have formed a committee to discuss who can be vaccinated (Macron got in and got his before he agreed they need one)....and the Dutch are scratching around trying to come up with a vaccination plan (does help that their Health Service IT system has failed!)
  9. That's one way of looking at it yes. The virus has adapted to survive and could mutate further in order to do so. The quicker we limit it's spread the better.
  10. That's what we all would like but we're now in a different ball game. The new variant B117 is much more infectious than the SARS-CoV-2 prevalent last year and there is concern amongst experts (Neil Ferguson for example) if lockdown this time round will be enough to contain spread. Additionally, even if we do get the infection numbers down this does not guarantee they will stay low. B117 really has changed the prognosis.
  11. Yes it's going to be a long way back. SARS-CoV-2 is now endemic in the UK, European and global population. Managing the virus and hopefully eliminating it by vaccination & good health practises will be a lengthy process. It could take up to 80-90% of the UK population to be vaccinated before victory can be claimed.
  12. Historically the over 65s have been worst hit by covid and provided the majority of hospitalizations, however this is changing. As the new variant spreads significant numbers of working age people are being hospitalised. Attached below is the covid bed occupancy for covid patients Homerton Hospital, Hackney 29 Dec 2020. It records 81 cases of working age v 87 for the over 65s
  13. Just read this morning that Boris yesterday could not guarantee children would be back in school by summer. If the government does not believe it will get children, who are less prone to covid, back to school in a semi-controlled environment, then festivals have little chance. Exposes government thinking and offers no comfort to festival organisers.
  14. According to BBC Sacha Lord said festivals were unviable below 100% capacity and incompatible with social distancing. Seems to me like he's giving them a reason not to come up with an insurance scheme. Too many obstacles!
  15. There is actually a simple way we could have Glasto this year.......Ban all under 50s from attending + UK residents only. Surely government cannot fuck up delivering it's jabs!
  16. There's a 2 fold problem here. Firstly a restart date and then the insurance. The government cannot predict a restart date; they can only offer tentative suggestions. And most festivals of scale will be reluctant to go ahead without government underwriting costs. The insurance guarantees festivals seek are a difficult argument and quite different from those granted to the tv & film industry which mainly address production delays due to covid. Yes I acknowledge support given to the tv & film industry does cover project cancellation but in reality very few projects will be cancelled. Whereas for festivals it's virtulally all or nothing. If the government commits underwriting festivals it is committing the public purse on a bet it has proven to be inept at delivering, viz Normality
  17. So who's telling the truth, Boris or Nicola?
  18. For what it's worth, Sturgeon now saying over 50s & vulnerable in Scotland will be vaccinated by early May.
  19. Unfortunately no. It is no doubt many patients presenting with Covid also have pre-existing conditions such as cancers, lung disease, COPD, diseases of the heart, liver or kidneys, diabetes etc. Such diseases become more common as we age and for many become life limiting. For these people acquiring covid puts an additional burden on the body and can hasten death. The thing is though many of these people would normally survive for months or even years if they had not caught covid. Finally with reference to ITU, it is more likely that patients in these units are specifically ill with Covid as patients with severe life limiting conditions are less good candidates for the therapy.
  20. Graph below is reproduced from the Twitter feed of CEO Homerton Hospital Hackney and shows covid patients by age group 31 Dec 2020. It records 87 patients 65 & over against 81 under 65. Note sadly the disparity between age groups for covid patients in itu, https://mobile.twitter.com/ceohomerton?lang=en
  21. Graph shows rates per 100,000 of each age group. You need to consider the population size of each age group in order to make a true comparison of number of cases presenting by age.
  22. The main issue is letting children, adolescents & students, who are proven vectors for transmission, mix to a high degree. They're bringing the virus back to the household. Shutting schools is what government must do to get the situation under any degree of control. Vaccination cannot be rolled out fast enough to achieve this aim.
  23. Not given up hope but despite the prospect of mass vaccination the numbers are heavily going the wrong way. Going to take more than the vaccination of the elderly & vulnerable to sever the serpents head. Mrs L's unit now getting more admissions of working age than elderly/vulnerable. Seen similar data being published by London hospitals.
  24. Posts seem to be petering out on this thread. A sign that optimism is being extinguished? 🤔
  25. The reality of reopening the Nightingales is that in order to staff them you have to thin out even more the already overstetched & exhausted doctors & nurses already caring for covid patients in hospitals.
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