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Lycra

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Everything posted by Lycra

  1. There's a tipping point for unlocking and reopening and that's when the best has been done to mitigate risk. Not just of catching covid, but also to those people not getting the treatment they deserve because of covid patients clogging the system. It's a balance. There's a balance for business too, particularly those in hospitality & entertainment. Open up to early and people stay away for fear of catching covid. Open up too late and people stay away because habits have changed, perhaps forever.
  2. Undoubtedly the decision to open up/convert Mrs L's unit to covids will be based on need and there may be a degree of centralistion but as units become full new covid patients have to spread to elsewhere. And so do non-covid patients. It's a domino effect.
  3. Sorry I haven't been following local rates since it bottomed out and very few covids were presenting in hospital. Came as a complete surprise when Mrs L told me she had been asked to prepare to accept covids when turning up for duty yesterday. The number of patients grew steadily through the day and overnight.
  4. The decision makers are party to a lot more data than the snapshot presented to the general public. In the space of 48hrs Mrs Lycra's unit has gone from no covid patients to double figures as the covid isolation unit is full. The majority of the patients are under 40, with some under 20. At the current rate of covid patient intake the specialist acute respiratory unit will be forced to close to non-covid patients within another 48hrs. Some of these covid patients may not make it and so will some non-covid patients denied access to the specialist respiratory unit. That's the unseen reality.
  5. The NHS can cope with Covid patients provided they are low in number. This makes it possible to clinically manage them in isolation units but obviously these have a finite capacity. When this is exceeded covid patients have to be accommodated elsewhere, usually on acute respiratory units. Today Mrs L's respiratory unit has lost 25% of its capacity so it can accept covid patients, one sole covid patient at present. Those patients moved to accommodate that covid patient have had to go to other wards, thus affecting their normal patient in-take ability. Similarly a profusion of very sick covid patients clogs up CCU and HDU, thus curtailing their ability to accept other patients, in particular those who would require post-operative care on these units.
  6. No, covid patients need to be minimised to a level which enables the hospital to function normally and treat other needs.
  7. Well that put the mockers on it. Mrs Lycra on duty today briefed this morning to prepare to accept covids so existing patients had to be shifted off elsewhere. First covid patient received this afternoon 😣
  8. @crazyfool1 It's all going very well in this neck of the woods (Staffs/South Derbys). So few covid patients has enabled all wards to be released back to normal duties, including respiratory. What few covids presenting are now confined to a dedicated isolation unit. Not seen any up tick yet from Delta: long my that continue.
  9. A while since I/we posted because just like everyone else we get fed up of this shit. So just like to say..... For the first time since last March we are free of covid patients 😊
  10. Note: By mid April vaccination rate must achieve 7 million/week in order to maintain current first dose rate and give second vaccinations.
  11. No evidence of a ramp up so far. Younger age brackets are being invited to make vaccination appointments for dates many weeks away. Part of new deliveries are being held back for second dose programme which commences soon. Note: By mid April vaccination rate must achieve 7 million/week in order to maintain current first dose rate and give second vaccinations.
  12. I agree. Here we are at the end of February, 8000+ infections daily & 300+ deaths. The vaccination programme needs to be fully implemented and deliver it's potential in a relatively short space of time otherwise mass non-socially distanced events will no be happening. Fingers crossed for our future and this summer. Sick of watching people die with incessant regularity.
  13. I don't agree. It's still a bad analogy and you're failing to take vaccination into proper consideration. A future Cheltenham attended by a substantially vaccinated crowd would no longer lead to 40 deaths but a failure at any time to detect a plane suicide bomber would be catastrophic. It is vaccination which mitigates the main risk, just as security does at an airport. LFT's are ancillary tools which will be difficult to justify on cost/benefit if/when the level of circulatory virus is low and the risk of acquiring it is similarly low.
  14. Equating the risk of terrorist attack & airport security is in no way comparable with a viral risk. Airport security is a deterrent against the heinous acts of some. Undoubtedly risk would be reduced further by additional actions but there comes a point when the benefit gained by an action is outweighed by the benefits of not pursuing the action.
  15. Not necessarily. If we achieve 85% vaccination uptake and the virus circulatory level drops to e.g. 10 in 100,000 infected, then the chances of an unvaccinated person attending a festival acquiring covid becomes low.
  16. Thats correct. By driving vaccination and reducing the pool of circulating virus to a very low level the transmission risk is hugely reduced.
  17. Tbh government plan for opening up 21 June is not based on prior testing or LFT at the gate. It's dependant on the vaccination programme, coupled with the current distancing measures, driving the quantity of circulating virus to a significantly small and manageable level.
  18. The debate surrounding prior testing or lateral flow tests at the gate will run but it's a major headache for promoters. This piece below is taken from a report this morning on the BBC news site on nightclubs: But Luke Laws, operations director at London nightclub Fabric, says that doing lateral flow testing on the door would be a logistical nightmare. He calculates that if a full capacity crowd - Fabric can hold 2,000 punters - had to wait in a socially distanced queue outside the club, the line would stretch 1.7 miles from the club in Farringdon all the way to Covent Garden. And then there is actually doing the test if, by the time clubs reopen, it is a requirement for entry. Where will clubbers wait for the results? Who will administer it? And who will pay for the tests?
  19. So presumably you're predicting a rapid increase on the running average of 2.5 million jabs/week? 🤔
  20. Does your calculation allow for the 15 million+ who will soon require their second jab?
  21. Even with today announcement there are many uncertainties and unknowns. The roadmap is couched in hitting targets and "no earlier than" dates. Personally I don't believe it gives any organisers an incentive to gamble the future of their festival by planning & building an event close to 21 June.
  22. There will be a point in the future when the risk of hospital transmission is so low it will allow PPE to be relaxed. It may well be on a unit basis depending on their patient intake. Right now that day is far off for those coming into contact with Covid patients, particularly respiratory units.
  23. ICU nurses come & go all the time but for many it's a vocation: a highly skilled role but how it affects staff turnover I'm unsure. Moving on is a personal decision taken for a variety of reasons. And being pissed off is one of those reasons.
  24. Very slow improvement with declining admissions enabling wards to be greenlighted to return to their regular day job but more patients in ICU, HDU & respiratory and still losing patients: 2 died on Sunday. There's an acceptance now Covid will be with us for the future as patients will be presenting on an on-going basis, though hopefully at a greatly reduced rate. See what the future holds & how cases are managed but spending 12hrs a day working in full PPE - masks, filter hoods etc is not a attractive career prospect 😐
  25. I agree. That's why government are being so cautious in promising what will happen and when. Fuck it up and we and they are really in deep shit. Over promising leads to an expectation which if not fulfilled will taint this government for the future. It's understandable people getting pissed off with politicians being vague and narked by experts giving correct scientific assessments because neither give them what they want: their life as it was back. The world however has moved on. The world is in constant change.
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