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About theevilfridge

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    Festival Freak

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  1. It was around 100,000 excess deaths for the 12 months to February 2021.
  2. Fuck off back to whichever Covid denial Facebook group you’re getting your bullshit from mate. Hope this helps?
  3. I happen to be in this group (29 with underlying health condition, vaccinated a couple of weeks ago with AZ) and the answer is if you didn't get a blood clot (or indeed any other serious side effects) from the first dose you're fine to continue with the second.
  4. Well sure, but that’s just another way of saying that lockdowns helped R to reduce more steeply. And the likelihood is that taking action earlier could’ve stopped the case rates getting so high in the first place.
  5. 200,000 doses administered across Easter Sunday and Monday is actually more than I expected!
  6. Hmmm, in which case he's only looking at R for fatal infections, rather than all infections. I can see how that might not correspond exactly with the November lockdown seeing as most of the risky stuff in terms of causing deaths (visiting a care home, for example) was already banned by that point anyway, and remained banned afterwards. Food for thought, but in terms of the course of the pandemic as a whole, it's really hard to tie up with the settled view of how the virus spreads - you'd think one virologist, as opposed to a computational statistician, might have flagged it up by now.
  7. Can you point me in the direction of where he's actually taken his figures for R from? Is it in one of the papers he links to? Because the idea that it was <1 before the November lockdown started but back over 1 before it ended is extremely counter-intuitive if the virus spreads how we think it does.
  8. This argument did make me pause for thought back in the first wave, considering the similarities in case rate changes across countries with wildly different policies on lockdown (or lack of). But looking at the graphs before, during and after the England November lockdown completely convinced me that it is a massive factor.
  9. So does it affect your thinking, knowing that this side effect in another vaccine you keep bringing up isn’t much more likely than dying of Covid if you catch it?
  10. Yes, but you’re using 0.0006% for one thing and 1 in 55,000 for another, making it seem like the risks are different (conveniently in the direction that helps your argument) when they’re actually pretty similar.
  11. Why do you use a percentage for the chance of death from Covid, but a fraction for the chance of getting narcolepsy from a completely different vaccine? 1 in 55,000 is 0.0018%. So only three times more likely than *literally dying*. There’s hospitalisation and long Covid to consider as well.
  12. Denmark chose not to be in the Euro as well, so we weren’t alone in that. Ultimately it’s very difficult to say exactly what would have happened as we would have a totally different government now as well as no Brexit if not for the referendum result. However, I don’t think a one-off event such as the pandemic and vaccine rollout is really comparable to a long term decision like Schengen membership, where taking a different path is more justifiable while still being a (fairly) committed member of the club. Can you imagine the shit UK MEPs would’ve got in the European Parliament if we were
  13. Absolute die-hard remainer here (I went on the marches and everything), and while this is obviously true in terms of the rules, politically it simply wouldn’t have happened if we were still in the EU. There’s no way one member would be able to get so extravagantly ahead of everyone else in the bloc without being made to share their supply. It’s still not a strong argument for Brexit (particularly as it looks like the EU might be able to equalise supply across the continent by banning exports to the UK anyway) but I do think claiming it hasn’t been a factor at all is naive.
  14. Agreed - would they have to kick half the people off the Bristol - Cardiff train at Severn Tunnel Junction so they could start abiding by social distancing in Wales? If the restrictions (other than on overseas travel / quarantine, which he doesn’t mention in the article) can’t be lifted with the whole adult population vaccinated, and in the middle of summer to boot, why does waiting until the next calendar year make any difference? Saying social distancing has to stay all year amounts to it being in place forever, which is absolute drivel. Someone should call him out on it.
  15. They could keep the commercial opening dates the same and bring forward the social stuff though, then everybody would be happy.
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