Jump to content

Leaderboard


Popular Content

Showing content with the highest reputation since 03/05/2020 in all areas

  1. 32 points
    I think on a music festival message board it’s a legitimate question to ask. It doesn’t suggest the OP doesn’t give a shit about anything else. Of course there are much bigger things to be worried about, but that doesn’t mean you can’t also miss live music.
  2. 26 points
    I don’t want to hijack your post, but I have a similar story, some of which might help. My wife Sue was in a hospice, terminally ill with cancer when tickets went on sale for Glastonbury 2016. From previous years the family (two sons, a daughter, plus friends and partners) had a Whatsapp group to organise tickets, and as we discussed who was going etc. we received a message from Sue in the hospice saying simply: “Planning a trip without me?” It was a tough reminder of the situation, but she clearly wasn’t well enough to go. Amazingly, we all got tickets, which meant we would all be together, but with one key person missing. By some miracle, the drugs she was taking started to control her pain and symptoms, and she was able to return home again. However, as the months wore on the cancer inevitably took hold once more, and she was readmitted to the hospice in late Spring. Despite this, she showed enormous resilience and was determined to continue to live life to the full. The family decided how wonderful it would be for her to come to Glastonbury for the first time. Looking back it was a crazy idea, but we all loved the place so much and knew she would too. She was keen, so we spoke to the doctors, and to our surprise they gave her permission to go. We didn’t get a ticket in the resale, unfortunately, so I wrote to Emily and See Tickets explaining the position, and to our surprise, See rang us and said they could provide a ticket. The hospice made extensive arrangements with the Glasto medical team and everything was put in place to make some unbelievable memories for the family. When we arrived, Greenpeace met us and allowed us to park within the festival site, and took us up to the hospital tent in a Land Rover, where we handed over the various drugs that we had been provided. Unfortunately, that made us late and we could only find a tent space directly behind Silver Hayes – the tent literally shook with drum and bass every night until 3 or 4 am. Somehow, though, we slept like logs. Every day we had to make the long walk up to hospital tent for injections and dressing changes, and this was the muddiest year on record. The staff were absolutely fantastic throughout. After each visit we rested in the Church marquee next door – neither of us were religious, but the people there were fabulously kind. Sue was really fan or R&B and Soul, but she watched Muse in awe – she had never seen anything like it. Coldplay were absolutely stunning and put on a spectacular show, and I have a wonderful final memory of us both watching Adele from the hill, clinging to each other in tears as those huge eyes on stage opened and she sang “Hello”. It was the most fantastic of festivals that year – not just the music, but the kindness and love we came across wherever we went. We have a wonderful video of us all together singing along to Madness “It Must be Love”. Afterwards, Sue returned to the hospice and somehow survived another 4 months. I returned to the church the following year to tell them what had happened and they remembered Sue well So I guess the moral of the story is to be prepared for the medical situation, which unfortunately may be a lot worse than it is right now. We certainly couldn't have coped without the fantastic medical team, who changed dressings, administered various drips and drugs, and gave us the confidence to take on what is quite a difficult environment , even for somebody in full health. I really hope it goes as well for you as it did for us - fantastic memories for the entire family
  3. 25 points
  4. 24 points
    In case anybody is interested (just gone through this for myself), the acts highlighted were the ones who were given in the first poster announcement for last year. ------------------------------------ ------------------------------------
  5. 23 points
  6. 23 points
    Update. I coincidentally saw them again today. Turns out they could source the hand sanitiser from China after all and actually ordered double the amount! It will keep for years so no problems there. They also said that at the mo the festival is going ahead as expected.
  7. 22 points
    I don’t know who you are, but as a villager myself I am happy chat in the village face to face with you should you wish to identify yourself. the fence does NOT start to go up until May. I run around the farm everyday and have never seen the fence start in March. oh and just to clarify, the festival did not run out of water last year.
  8. 21 points
    Prince Charles is isolating at Balmoral with COVID-19. Prince Andrew is isolating at Windsor with Jenny, 14.
  9. 20 points
  10. 19 points
    My good news for the day.... out dog walking early yesterday morning and came upon a chap around my age, been sleeping on a bench in our local country park overnight, no shelter, freezing his tits off. So, not one for ever walking on by I stopped and got his story. Fallen on hard times over the past week, never been homeless (and I believe him), but just didn't know what to do, who to speak to, phone had died and of course nowhere to recharge. Long story short, after much phoning to the council (who really struggled with the concept of communications and engagement) and the Sally Army, we've finally sorted out accomodation for him tomorrow. In the mean time he's camping out glasto styley, got my one man tent, sleeping bag, blanket and plenty of food; a bad situation made a little better. A nice quiet spot as well, overlooking a lake, won t get bothered, especially in the current climate. Hopefully tomorrow will be the start of the rest of his life 😎
  11. 19 points
    Quick note to think carefully when coming to post things like "yes it's sad but it's just a festival" and "we will all have bigger things to worry about soon". Yes, for myself and for most people here, while it's gutting, there are people going to be going through a lot worse. But for some with anxiety and other issues, something like this can be a big blow to mental health, which is obviously closely linked to personal wellbeing, so let's not forget you never know the personal circumstances of the person behind the screen, and there is no need to belittle anyone's emotions. We're all on this forum because we love this festival so let's keep it positive.
  12. 19 points
    And with that poster concludes the prediction game and from it we have 4 winners. Please collect your prize @JoeyT, @jyoung, @Wellyboot, @SomeoneListeningIn which is an image of a medal at the bottom of this post. Only you are allowed to look at and save this image although I have absolutely no way of policing this. It was mentioned that the community would pitch together to buy you a pint each but being realistic this probably won't happen. For me the main prize is pride for being good at guessing (maybe even working out the pattern??) Much bigger response to this than was expected, it has been fun. Let's do it again next year. Included the full list of predictors and the crossing out of doom for all of those, including me, that got this wrong February 17 - mrholmes February 18 - zahidf February 19 - fightoffyour February 20 - nicnzl, Rocketfrog1820 February 21 - Brad2434, Jack.194 February 23 - Damon February 24 - HattersBoy, Obiginnaw February 25 - billum, Dronx February 26 - dentalplan February 27 - mcshed February 28 - OnlyRevolutions February 29 - Keithy, funkychick2007 March 2 - WestCountryGirl, s30foster March 3 - AlexOvd, assorted, jparx, gmb1992, rawrsomesauce March 4 - HeyPorter, kingbadger, sequenci March 5 - SupernintendoChalmers, Sasperella, The Red Telephone March 6 - Gnomicide, chuckles07, shuttlep March 7 - beefykoala, Havors March 8 - Chazwozza March 9 - Doug85, Stokesy10, discgoesmic March 10 - LGH, Freddyflintstonree, dotdash79, JonnyG, Euphoricape March 11 - RarerThanDandyB, Earth_pig, the_arsonist, zeppelin, Chrisp1986, wro_lap March 12 - Joey T, jyoung, Wellyboot, SomeoneListeningIn March 13 - Jakeyboi135, Andy0808 v5, MetaKate, chazwwe, Radiochicken, Slugy March 14 - morph100 March 15 - northernringo, stt11, Lubic87 March 16 - Fish Bulb, moams, Ashl March 17 - Waltere, crazyfool1, circus92, FuzzyDunlop, Miyn, thrillhouse188 March 18 - Kalopsia, Matt42, Guy Incognito, mazola March 19 - sisco, maelzoid, Quark, Jack The Stripper March 20 - giantkatestacks, kalifire, Hugh Jass, Gregfc15 March 22 - Simsy, Ayrshire Chris, sheerin_lfc, Bryanrebe March 23 - Jon F, Bennykill March 24 - a6l6e6x, reflekting March 25 - CJTM, kingcrawler, Gwladboy March 26 - Tuna, DareToDibble, Smash Williams March 27 - Suprefan, Northtim March 28 - mikegday March 29 - Greenelk March 30 - Mr. Snrub March 31 - MattyMooz, petewilson09, Huckleberry Finn April 1 - priest17 April 2 - august1 April 3 - eFestivals April 6 - Tommy Dickfingers April 8 - the wonderwhy April 13 - jj200 April 24 - faymondo
  13. 19 points
  14. 18 points
    My mood in: April - I'm still happy now there's no Mordor, could feel more like the old days May - no Auditori this year as it's indoor, bummer but inevitable June - confirmation that we have lost almost all the US bands, damn, but we have some great European ones at least July - only three stages now? Damn, but was like that at Primavera Porto in the early days and still had a great time August - only one stage, with Deerhunter alternating with Shellac all day? Where do I sign up, sounds great, just give me music and let me the hell outdoors...
  15. 18 points
    Hi everyone, Long time lurker first time poster here. This is a bit of an emotional story but here goes. I've been going to Glastonbury a few times over the last few years with my wife and her mother and father, who are in their 60s but are mad for music, and though they only went to their first Glasto in 2015, they enjoy and make the most of every moment. I'm talking watching headliners and then dancing the night away until 3 AM, waking up at the crack of dawn and doing it all over again. Absolute legends and put my wife and me (20s) to shame. Unfortunately, just after Christmas my father-in-law started feeling ill, and about a month ago was diagnosed with an aggressive stage 4 inoperable cancer. It's an absolutely heartbreaking thing to happen especially for someone who only 3 months ago was feeling great, going to the gym every day, having a drink at the weekend and loving life. In fact, we were only just at Glasto last year having a great time despite the abuse we all received from the sun! We all have secured tickets again this year and are determined to all go together this summer for the 50th anniversary, and are relatively sure this will be his last. We are trying to make this as special as possible for him, and I wondered if anyone had any tips or has experienced something similar or knows someone is a similar boat. Bonus points if you are/know a producer and could fix a meet-up with an artist, but I know that's a long shot. FWIW, we have already contacted Glasto Access team and have applied for accessibility and viewing platform passes for him and his wife. TL;DR father in law's last Glastonbury, trying to make it a good one. any tips/info/etc appreciated, we've also already contacted glasto access team. Thanks for reading and hopefully see some of you there!
  16. 18 points
    The fact this thread has gone from Glastonbury being cancelled due to car parking reductions to a reunited Oasis headlining in the space of 2 pages is peak eFestivals.
  17. 17 points
  18. 15 points
    A glimmer of hope and positivity from the front line. The first recovered patient has left Mrs Lycra's unit.
  19. 15 points
    Imagine the scenario that this cancellation of mass gatherings manages to bring numbers under control within 6-8 weeks, just in time for the build. The festival has held strong, not guaranteeing it'll be on, but resisting the calls to cancel as well. Uncertainty looms over the entire event, but the plans slowly and carefully proceed. The ban on mass gatherings is lifted around early June, and Glastonbury is not only held, but becomes an iconic demonstration of our resilience to carry on, and our care for each other that ushered in a fall in numbers infected. Yes it could be cancelled, but it could also be the best Glastonbury there's ever been.
  20. 14 points
    I turn my back for 5 minutes and my dream thread happens. Sorry everyone, been avoiding all news and social media for a week to protect my peace. I'll have a proper read through soon. For now, let me leave you with some images of the work in progress on my Simpsons leg sleeve. Yes, I like the Simpsons. Hope everyone is well! Diddly.
  21. 14 points
    Nope, I am a pharmacist working on the frontline. Live music thoughts are what get me through my days of hell.
  22. 14 points
    I feel like it’s a rite of passage to at least have one comment on this thread. I’ve been trying to avoid coming here but it’s like slowing down for a car crash, I can’t help Myself. As someone who works front line in the NHS this is a very surreal time. We’re just starting to see the ramp up of people who are needing intensive respiratory support and we’re struggling even now. Even last week I thought that what was happening in Italy and elsewhere wouldn’t happen here, now I’m not so sure. We just don’t have the capacity or specialist equipment to cope with the influx. Most people will be fine but even the 1% getting ill in a period of one month is bad news. It will come but we just need to do our best to drag it out. As such, I struggle to see glastonbury happen now - we might be ok by June but the call has to be made soon and I fear that’ll be next month at the latest. And I’m ok with that - some things really are more important and as much as I was looking forward to 5 days forgetting about all the shit that we’ve had to face this last year this is a global crisis that we’ve never seen before. Peoples lives will change, business will close, we’ll be talking about this for years but let’s just hope that we’re all back here looking forward to 2021.
  23. 13 points
    For those artists that have performed on the series 'NPR Music: Tiny Desk Concert' these are really unique, intimate concerts that give you a different view and sound of the artist you wouldn't get on Spotify: Taylor Swift - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FvVnP8G6ITs&t=250s Anderson .Paak & The Free Nationals - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ferZnZ0_rSM Angel Olsen - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G7NapIZ1xGE Anna Calvi - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EScw2XrUHFY Banks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbwPwWqA-QQ Big Thief - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0E5vMkDfOI Black Uhuru - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qd2Zcj1flw8 Brittany Howard - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XyW5Zz0w1zg Burna Boy - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaaYgVRZTnE Cate Le Bon - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFEhLCP6jzs Declan McKenna - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ea43VkCiyFo Khruangbin - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWLJeqLPfSU KOKOKO! - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wA7MgcgqaZA Laura Marling - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4Ed6vT6a94 Lianne LaHavas - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9HUV5a7MgS4 Phoebe Bridgers - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hLJNZSIwP8 Rufus Wainwright - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCmcvsCxfng Snarky Puppy - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfzu33BfRHE Suzanne Vega - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AndEMO__p2U Thundercat - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zhVgbZdMdb0 Tinariwen - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdbBmqOUPlY Tom Misch - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUMTaAQ43lY
  24. 13 points
    - Glastonbury is being cancelled - Who is Neil?
  25. 12 points
    This cheered me up no end. WhatsApp_Video_2020-03-25_at_21_58_12.mp4
  26. 12 points
    We're all pretty shocked by the unprecedented (in our lifetimes) events happening across the world. Some of us are focusing on a music festival, in the way that you can burst into tears when spilling milk when you're grieving. It's an incredibly stressful and unusual time for us all, please, let's all try more empathy and more kindness. People are upset about Glastonbury, but more than that, I think a lot of us are generally upset and bewildered and are using the cancellation of the festival to try to focus and make sense of our feelings. I'm trying to cut everyone, everywhere a bit more slack at the moment. Edit: apart from Donald Trump of course, he's a prick.
  27. 12 points
    So your take is that people who bought their ticket 5 months ago, and have since planned their holidays/summer around attending, in many cases spending a fair amount of money on doing so (transport, accomodation etc), should get the same treatment from the festival as people who didn't buy a ticket (including those who didn't even think about doing so), and who therefore aren't inconvenienced by the cancellation at all? If so I cannot understand that at all. Almost every festival that has cancelled so far has offered to roll tickets over to next year. It's good for their finances too, of course, to be able to keep the money they've already got. Really don't see any reason why Glasto should or would do anything else.
  28. 12 points
    Why do we need a new poll? It would be undemocratic
  29. 12 points
    Too much negativity in here. Sorry @Matt42 but needed to be done 😀
  30. 11 points
    From last year, my first Glasto: At the Green Fields, some random guy playing Wonderwall: Listening to Worthy FM in the morning: Sunset at William's Green: At the temple: Stormzy: A lovely couple on The Other: Enjoying Liam: A good read: This kid enjoying a big crowd at Kylie: And The Cure:
  31. 10 points
    Stockholm resident here, I can give a short summary of what we're doing/not doing as the 'odd one out' in Europe at the moment. Here's what the government have said; There's only actually been three legislative changes; ban on public events of 50 people or above (until recently this was 500 but was revised down), restaurants/bars must only provide table service and revise seating plans to ensure enough space between, entry ban on people from outside the EU entering Sweden. Aside from that everything else that has come from the government has been 'guidelines'. That advice includes things like; Everyone who can work from home should do. Avoid any unnecessary travel both within and outside of Sweden (this now includes any travel during Easter weekend, particularly to the ski resorts which would be otherwise packed out at this time of year). Stockholm residents, in particular, have been asked not to travel as we are the countries virus 'epicentre' at the moment and they want to slow the spread to other regions. Senior high schools, universities and colleges have been asked to close and look at distance learning instead, this has now happened Lower schools have been allowed to remain open but many (and nurseries too) have taken a unilateral decision to close anyway. Avoid group exercise events and do other activities again (i.e. running, cycling, kayaking alone or in pairs). So this will probably all seem pretty crazy, and potentially frightening, to you guys in the UK and other countries under lockdown or similar at the moment. To be honest being from the UK and being acutely aware of the situation there it's pretty frightening for me too, so I've spent the last few weeks reading up what I can about the Swedish government approach and trying to understand the rationale behind it. This is what I've been able to gather; Scientists are calling this shots, not politicians - Ultimately while the government makes the legislation, the Public Health Agency is basically running the show. State agencies, including the Public Health Agency, are not able to pass laws themselves, but they can give recommendations to the government. Some of the rules that have been brought in to deal with the virus outbreak, such as restrictions for restaurants and cafes and a ban on public events over 50 people, have come following consultation with the agency. It is written into the national constitution that Sweden's public agencies are independent of the government. There are two main goals of this: ensuring that decisions are made based on knowledge and expertise, and limiting corruption, because ministers cannot have influence in agency decision-making. Overruling government agencies or disregarding their advice is usually seen as politically risky, even though it's not specifically forbidden in most circumstances. Individual responsibility - this is something that has been mentioned repeatedly by the PM and, from my vantage point, unpins much of their strategy. Swedes have been asked to repay the governments lack of draconian legislation by mitigating the virus spread by their own sense of social responsibility. From speaking to Swedes this is effectively a social contract that exists between the people and the government here and helps explain why the government hasn't felt it necessary (yet!) to impose stringent rules on people's rights. Despite the above 50 people restriction only coming in last week most gigs/events with lower capacity had already been cancelled, people had already decided to 'play it safe'. Social distancing is already a way of life - speaking very broadly, at the best of times Swedes practice quite a bit of social distancing anyway. Many people in Stockholm live alone, very few families of multiple generations live under the same roof (as perhaps they do in Italy/Spain). This has probably helped limit the spread so far. The great outdoors in an even bigger way of life - There's a running joke in Sweden that the population basically go into hibernation during the winter months, only emerging from their apartments around April/May when the temperatures climb up into the double digits, it's largely true. There would be a big social impact of restricting people's ability to spend time outdoors, particularly at this time of year, and they're keen to avoid/minimise that also. In addition to the above there's the more 'cynical' reasons a) the economy is hit less b) the 2nd and 3rd waves of the pandemic might hurt less. These are pretty much the same reasons that the UK government was considering as I understand it. Even after learning all of the above I'm still really uncomfortable. Particularly when I look at the state of the UK and US today who both dragged their heels on the more extreme measures. Ultimately though we're in uncharted waters and it comparing Sweden to the US, or even the UK, is like comparing apples and oranges. We've also been advised that the next couple of weeks will be tough and that the ICUs in Stockholm are reaching capacity so, like most other countries, it's going to get worse before it gets better. The only question for me is how much more worse will it get going down this road. This really wasn't that short of a summary at all.
  32. 10 points
    Howdy, Basically, the relationship is that the virus doesn't mutate rapidly, it's fairly stable. All virus mutate (all DNA mutates, our own DNA accumulates mistakes pretty much every time it replicates...most of the time it happens in parts of the genome that make no difference, so that's why we all have the same genetic code to make all the things that make us a human, but when we look closely, the fine details are different for everybody (that's how we can do DNA fingerprinting)). Anyway, things that replicate quickly (like viruses and cancer cells) accumulate more errors, and "drift" in terms of their genetic code. Coronaviruses are no different in this respect, they will accumulate small differences, but most of the time it won't make any difference to how it functions or how our body recognises it. From time to time it will gain an error (mutation) that gives it a new property (like jumping from bats to humans, possibly via some other animal). Viruses like flu are entirely different. They have what is known as a "segmented" genome. They are kind of like those puzzles you had when you were a kid with a picture on them, but you can shuffle the picture by sliding the squares around in the puzzle. Every year, flu slides the squares around a bit so that the picture gets a bit jumbled up and looks different to our immune systems (so we need to make a new vaccine every year). This is how "genetic drift" works in flu viruses. On the whole, most people's immune systems recognise it as flu as even though the picture is a bit jumbled up, it's still close enough to what our body's have seen before. Every now and again, flu changes the picture entirely by putting new squares in the puzzle (by getting bits of flu virus from other species...hence we call them "avian" or "swine" flu). This is called "genetic shift" and it stymies even immune systems that have seen flu before, so we get large outbreaks. The H1N1 1918 pandemic was as a result of a genetic shift, likewise the recent H5N1 and H1N1 outbreaks. Coronaviruses are not built like this, so are less prone to making large jumps in their genetic code, therefore when we do have a vaccine, its likely to work for a good while until an entirely new strain jumps out of some other bat!
  33. 10 points
  34. 10 points
    Gil! Scott! Heron!
  35. 10 points
    How am I supposed to stay at home when there are singles in my area looking to meet me?
  36. 10 points
  37. 10 points
    No need for the WHO to bother headhunting or recruiting from fancy universities. Just need to dip in this thread and take their pick of expert epidemiologists.
  38. 10 points
    I've purposely stayed out of this thread to protect my peace but I thought I'd share an observation after a weekend spent in London. I've used various forms of transport and moved freely across the breadth of the city and one thing that was noticeable is the lack of people wearing "protective" masks. I spotted maybe a dozen over the course of 48 hours. People seem to be just getting on with life regardless. They maybe taking a few more precautions but certainly nothing obvious. I'm not trivialising a clearly very serious situation but some, if not most areas of the media would have us think we're on the brink of the collapse of civilisation as we know it. I'm not entirely sure what my point is but once this situation has resolved itself, the same organisations where the majority of the country sources it's "information" will probably be warning of a critical water shortage due to everyone needing to wash their hands for twenty seconds every time during the Coronavirus crisis. In times like this I'm quick to remind myself that fear, bad news, negativity and pessimism sells newspapers and fuels 24 hour news channel viewing figures. Just look at the political state of the world over the past decade to reinforce that point. Right now, the festival is going ahead and although I've got zero scientific basis to back any hope up, I still firmly believe it will. Seems to me the only real threat to it is the fear being created by those with a certain agenda. If anyone needs me, I'll be in the electronica thread planning which of the many micro venues I'll be in at 4am on the Saturday morning of the festival.
  39. 9 points
    Update, confirmation after a bit of faffy about and a slight delay today, he will definitely be moving into his flat tomorrow, says he won't be able to sleep tonight, super excited!!; Mrs oneeye very emotional as well, got very smokey here in the oneeye household this afternoon. Magic 😎 PS we do know his name but thought best to use he / his / him to maintain anonymity and self dignity.
  40. 9 points
    are foals big enough to headline the internet?
  41. 9 points
  42. 9 points
  43. 9 points
    Oh yeah, I forgot about him
  44. 8 points
    So lots of bands and artist are now having to cancel - there are a few online live apps being set up plus live streaming- let’s help support these from our sofas! Share any you hear about. Frank Turner had to cancel the rest of his tour but you can see his live solo show tomorrow night on his Facebook page
  45. 8 points
    If you need to talk to anyone please please don't hesitate to message me Same goes for anyone on here I won't be able to make it better but can talk about anything at all if that is of any help at all x It's not what we wanted and it's gunna be a shit summer but if I can help in anyway at all x
  46. 8 points
    Morning Nobby! So, I read the Imperial report last night. One key point about it is that it used actual data from China and Italy to inform the models, rather than some of the more theoretical modelling that occurred earlier on (as we get more data, the models will get better). There are a few assumptions made that are not unreasonable, mainly regarding the R0 (they modelled 2-2.6) and the predicted fatality rate (they settled on a baseline of 1%, which is also not unreasonable). Neither of these are entirely certain though. However, I think the conclusions are pretty clear, mitigate in the hope of reaching "herd immunity" quickly and it's a disaster. Impose ever increasing public health measures to suppress spread and management is much easier (depending on the degree of intervention, when they are implemented and what the actual transmissibility of the virus is, the predicted outcome is 550,000 deaths from do nothing reduced to 5,600 with early intervention measures...later less stringent interventions still end up with about 120,000 predicted fatalities). Mitigation rather than suppression would lead to about a halving of mortality (still >200,00 deaths). As such, there's no rational reason not to begin implementing further public health measures at the correct time, and from their model, earlier is better (in the report they looked at the impact of case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing and school/university closures). Best predicted results occur with all 4 major public health interventions that they measured used when critical admissions are lowest (they also looked at the impact of each measure in isolation, in different combinations, with higher numbers of critical care admissions and with different R0 of the virus, but all 4 together early on work best). This I guess needs to balanced with the economic impact (which they deliberately don't consider in the report) and the ethical considerations of balancing with economic impact (which again they deliberately don't consider) as well as the capacity of the health systems in different countries (they looked at the UK and the US). When to trigger each public health intervention will be different depending on the exact circumstances of each country. They then suggest that these measures would need to be in place for a period of 2-3 months or so and would need to be re-introduced when cases rise again. Interestingly, they are using ICU admissions as a surrogate for actual case numbers (which would remove the need for massive levels of testing). Whether this turns out to be a good measure of the amount of virus circulating or fits the outcome to the model is unknown...theoretically, it could end up proving the model rather than taking a different approach and changing it (for example, between peaks, aggressive testing and contact tracing and individual public health interventions (like stricter measures for high risk groups) could delay the onset of the next peak and the need to introduce all 4 again). Anyway, the upshot of the modelling is repeated stringent public health interventions over the next 2 years until most of the world has immunity. The economic and ethical implications of this are not considered in the report, but they acknowledge that difficult policy decision need to be made (you really would want a more socially democratic government at times like these)... All sounds pretty grim, but there is some good news in there. First, it's the reasonable worst case (and all the ones I saw early in the outbreak were similar, hence the "hype"). It's also the worst-case when only public health measures are used to suppress. There are other variables not considered which should have an impact. Pharmaceutical intervention is coming (and will be quicker than a vaccine...fast-tracking experimental treatment for people who are dying is quicker than fast-tracking a vaccine you will give en masse to an otherwise healthy population...I don't think we should cut any corners on vaccine development). China tried HIV drugs, others are using malaria drugs (Chloroquine), but there are coronavirus therapeutics that were under development for SARS and MERS that are getting ready for early trials (initial trials of these back when the previous outbreaks occurred suggested toxicity was ok, just don't know how well they work yet!...of course, the outbreaks went away and ending for R&D dried up typically, so while we don't have to start from scratch with either therapeutics or vaccines, they could more or less have been developed if we'd stuck with it...a similar clusterf*ck to why we stockpile weapons but not medical equipment, but that's for another day!). How they might change the model is not factored in (though I expect the principal impact would be on mortality rather than anything else as prophylactic use is not on the cards)...it might allow higher trigger thresholds for the introduction of public health measures though, so this would spread the peaks a bit more (when more stringent public health measures need to be introduced). Also, the virus hasn't been around long enough to know what impact climate has on spread. We are only entering into spring in most of the places with large outbreaks, so it's not unreasonable to think that higher temperatures will help limit the spread (it's a hope rather than a certainty at this stage, nobody knows, but other coronaviruses don't hang around as much when summer hits). It's also possible that their assumptions about the R0 and CFR are incorrect. The virus may be more transmissible and less deadly, with loads of asymptomatic cases in the community (we won't know that till we get a serology test and can find antibodies in the population rather than having to assay for live virus in suspected cases), in which case the timeframe of the model shortens considerably (herd immunity is reached quicker and with less stress on the health system). (the herd immunity comment is what alarmed many people, its the natural end point of any pandemic, but rapid pursuit of it is not an effective aim and the thought that this was policy was the concerning part...actually its where we will end up if the virus become endemic, we just need to get there at a pace that doesn't wipe out a large chunk of the population). There's also the shift in public behaviour and wider acceptance of that, which again is not factored into the model. Places that experienced SARS/MERS have had lasting social changes. When I first went to China after SARS, I used to see people wearing masks on public transport. I always thought, jeez, SARS really did a number on these folks, they are terrified of catching it again. Until is was pointed out to me that it had become socially accepted practice to wear as mask as you recovered from any respiratory ailment, just to protect your fellow citizens from getting infected as you went back to work. It completely changed my perception of the whole thing from a frightened populace to a socially responsible one...I know masks are much maligned, but used correctly they contribute to social distancing and reducing the R0 of the virus, which is the key to "flattening the curve", so maybe things like this will become more normal? Hand santizer use also went up dramatically everywhere after swine flu (transformed my festival experience, baby wipes only used at the tent now!), so, who knows, simple hygiene measures may become more widespread after suppression and better public education can help this and widen the gap between peaks too. (or course, public behaviour works the other way too as people become fed up of restrictions and just think, f*ck it, I can't do this anymore). Anyway, safe to say we still have no idea how this is going to play out. Prudent thing to do is to suppress, try to get it under control and support your population in the face of hardship as a result of the measures implemented to control it (not sure if I'd want a Tory government for this bit...I'm in Ireland so as it stands we don't actually have any elected government, but they do seem to be putting some supports in place early on, though how they deal with more widespread issues going forward is another matter)... What all this means for Glasto is anyone's guess!...mine is it's unlikely to happen, but stranger things have happened...SARS and MERS died out fairly rapidly once they were brought under control, so theoretically, the same thing could happen here (though this is a lot more widespread)...we don't know enough yet. All I can go on is what my colleagues in China have said and that is that it took about 7-9 weeks to get them back to a place where they could look at getting back to a bit of normality...which would probably be end of May/early June...maybe too late, but who knows. Stay Safe!
  47. 8 points
  48. 8 points
  49. 8 points
    What this thread needs right now is a Simpsons meme...
  50. 8 points


×
×
  • Create New...