Penultimate update on my forecast from 11 March.

As previously noted, growth in confirmed cases slowed earlier than expected. It was c27% per day to 21 March and c17% since then.

I’ll give a final update on this once we have numbers for 31 March. https://t.co/N6USSUy5MS pic.twitter.com/6Dc9Fsy9dt

— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) March 29, 2020