I’m sorry to be a killjoy but please don’t take that new ICL study too seriously. Their claim that UK COVID-19 deaths won’t exceed 7,000 is reckless, and hinges on an assumption that UK social distancing measures will be as effective as the severe lockdown applied in China. 1/3 https://t.co/Hmg6UpXLw9

— stuart mcdonald (@ActuaryByDay) March 28, 2020