this story that the SPI-M models were using out-of-date estimates for VE vs. hospitalisation is getting a lot of traction. but if I'm reading the papers right, the models also took no account of PHE's analysis suggesting that delta causes ~2.5x higher levels of hospitalisations https://t.co/xqJKRmlyJT pic.twitter.com/vX9aHATHPH
— James Ward (@JamesWard73) June 16, 2021