Weather 2017

[WS_Jack_III]

It's going to be

 

 

[leej7]

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~2640282/long.html

now showing no rain at all, it might be back in our favour?

[SwedgeAntilles]

It's impossible to be unhappy in a poncho 

[Tartan_Glasto]

4 minutes ago, The Nal said:

The ground isn't the issue.

I'd much rather a muddy ground and no rain from above than an ok ish ground that you still can't sit down on and getting pissed on from the heavens. 

Walking boots + shorts + tshirt= ok

Walking boots + shorts + poncho = not ok

As I said, I feel we're in for similar to 2015 conditions which will allow you plenty opportunity to sit on the ground. 

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, SwedgeAntilles said:

It's impossible to be unhappy in a poncho 

I re-watched the Mighty Boosh earlier this year.  I found it utterly toe-curlingly cringeworthy.  Totally awful.  I used to fucking love the Boosh too, saw them live twice.

[squirrelarmy]

1 hour ago, mazola said:

That Jagwar Ma clip reminded me.

What's everyone view on umbrella's at festivals. I think they are a fucking pisstake.

Umbrella's annoy the hell out of me all year round and not just at festivals. Just the slightest bit of moisture in the air and the streets are full of them. For the shorter people they're not a problem but on a busy street I'm dodgy lots of little metal spikes at my eye level

#TallPersonProblems

[andyhh]

6 minutes ago, leej7 said:

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~2640282/long.html

now showing no rain at all, it might be back in our favour?

[Northern Soul]

3 minutes ago, Tartan_Glasto said:

As I said, I feel we're in for similar to 2015 conditions which will allow you plenty opportunity to sit on the ground. 

2015 was absolutely perfect, and for what it's worth I think this years weather will be exactly the same.

[JoeyT]

2 minutes ago, leej7 said:

https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Pilton~2640282/long.html

now showing no rain at all, it might be back in our favour?

I'm struggling to see why / how websites such as this update their forecast so regularly.

Of the 4 main (from what I can gather) forecasting systems they update as follows:

GFS - 4 times per day 04:44 GMT, 10:45 GMT, 16:45 GMT, 22:45 GMT

ECM - 2 times per day 06:55 GMT and 18:55 GMT

GEM - 2 times per day 04:55 GMT and 16:55 GMT

UK Met Office - 2 times per day 06:55 GMT and 18:55 GMT

With that in mind how can all of these other sites change their minds throughout the day? Am I wrong in assuming the websites such as the one above would put together their forecasts using the above charts?

Perhaps someone with some better knowledge of this can help solve the puzzle?!

[Eks101]

3 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I'm struggling to see why / how websites such as this update their forecast so regularly.

Of the 4 main (from what I can gather) forecasting systems they update as follows:

GFS - 4 times per day 04:44 GMT, 10:45 GMT, 16:45 GMT, 22:45 GMT

ECM - 2 times per day 06:55 GMT and 18:55 GMT

GEM - 2 times per day 04:55 GMT and 16:55 GMT

UK Met Office - 2 times per day 06:55 GMT and 18:55 GMT

With that in mind how can all of these other sites change their minds throughout the day? Am I wrong in assuming the websites such as the one above would put together their forecasts using the above charts?

Perhaps someone with some better knowledge of this can help solve the puzzle?!

Dice don't always roll the same number.

[SwedgeAntilles]

5 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I re-watched the Mighty Boosh earlier this year.  I found it utterly toe-curlingly cringeworthy.  Totally awful.  I used to fucking love the Boosh too, saw them live twice.

The whole thing? I watched the first series again recently and still loved it. Don't think the third series has aged particularly well though, real noticeable drop off in quality from the second series. 

[stuartbert two hats]

Just now, SwedgeAntilles said:

The whole thing? I watched the first series again recently and still loved it. Don't think the third series has aged particularly well though, real noticeable drop off in quality from the second series. 

Just the first episode.

[Thunderstruck]

4 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I'm struggling to see why / how websites such as this update their forecast so regularly.

Of the 4 main (from what I can gather) forecasting systems they update as follows:

GFS - 4 times per day 04:44 GMT, 10:45 GMT, 16:45 GMT, 22:45 GMT

ECM - 2 times per day 06:55 GMT and 18:55 GMT

GEM - 2 times per day 04:55 GMT and 16:55 GMT

UK Met Office - 2 times per day 06:55 GMT and 18:55 GMT

With that in mind how can all of these other sites change their minds throughout the day? Am I wrong in assuming the websites such as the one above would put together their forecasts using the above charts?

Perhaps someone with some better knowledge of this can help solve the puzzle?!

Some of the websites will just update with each model run. sites like yr.no for example are computer generated forecasts built from model runs. It's hard to know exactly the methods they use, but that's why they change so much at long ranges, because each model run tends to flip flop past 5 days or so.

The main models used will be GFS and ECM. Any bbc or met office forecast will be UKMO.

Edited June 15, 2017 by Thunderstruck

[Nobody Interesting]

5 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I'm struggling to see why / how websites such as this update their forecast so regularly.

Of the 4 main (from what I can gather) forecasting systems they update as follows:

GFS - 4 times per day 04:44 GMT, 10:45 GMT, 16:45 GMT, 22:45 GMT

ECM - 2 times per day 06:55 GMT and 18:55 GMT

GEM - 2 times per day 04:55 GMT and 16:55 GMT

UK Met Office - 2 times per day 06:55 GMT and 18:55 GMT

With that in mind how can all of these other sites change their minds throughout the day? Am I wrong in assuming the websites such as the one above would put together their forecasts using the above charts?

Perhaps someone with some better knowledge of this can help solve the puzzle?!

YR only updates twice. Around 9am and 9pm

The BBC updates every hour!

[SwedgeAntilles]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Just the first episode.

Ahh, give the Hitcher episode another watch, that's really when it hits its stride. I was laughing pretty much through the whole episode 

Edited June 15, 2017 by SwedgeAntilles

[Tommy101]

11 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

It's impossible to be unhappy in a poncho 

[devonhammer]

5 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I'm struggling to see why / how websites such as this update their forecast so regularly.

Of the 4 main (from what I can gather) forecasting systems they update as follows:

GFS - 4 times per day 04:44 GMT, 10:45 GMT, 16:45 GMT, 22:45 GMT

ECM - 2 times per day 06:55 GMT and 18:55 GMT

GEM - 2 times per day 04:55 GMT and 16:55 GMT

UK Met Office - 2 times per day 06:55 GMT and 18:55 GMT

With that in mind how can all of these other sites change their minds throughout the day? Am I wrong in assuming the websites such as the one above would put together their forecasts using the above charts?

Perhaps someone with some better knowledge of this can help solve the puzzle?!

It is a mystery. There are more models, e.g. yr.no uses the Norwegian Met Office and there are many more national met offices around. The weather apps and websites will still regularly go off piste though. I can pretty much guarantee that there will be a prediction of rain on any day if you look at enough charts.

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, Nobody Interesting said:

YR only updates twice. Around 9am and 9pm

The BBC updates every hour!

the clue from timings is that it uses the 00z ECMWF for the 9am update and the 12z ECMWF for the 9pm update. Not totally sure though.

[jfaragher]

3 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I'm struggling to see why / how websites such as this update their forecast so regularly.

Of the 4 main (from what I can gather) forecasting systems they update as follows:

GFS - 4 times per day 04:44 GMT, 10:45 GMT, 16:45 GMT, 22:45 GMT

ECM - 2 times per day 06:55 GMT and 18:55 GMT

GEM - 2 times per day 04:55 GMT and 16:55 GMT

UK Met Office - 2 times per day 06:55 GMT and 18:55 GMT

With that in mind how can all of these other sites change their minds throughout the day? Am I wrong in assuming the websites such as the one above would put together their forecasts using the above charts?

Perhaps someone with some better knowledge of this can help solve the puzzle?!

yr.no is the website of the Norwegian weather service.  Like most national met services, they run their own model as well as taking data from the models of the big global centres.

They may well be running a European model 8 times a day, or even 24.  Met Office high res UK model runs 8 times a day...

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

2015 was my first so not much else to compare it to than last year, but it was indeed just about perfect.

[Thunderstruck]

Just now, jfaragher said:

yr.no is the website of the Norwegian weather service.  Like most national met services, they run their own model as well as taking data from the models of the big global centres.

They may well be running a European model 8 times a day, or even 24.  Met Office high res UK model runs 8 times a day...

from yr.no 

Weather forecasts on yr.no are based on data provided by Norwegian Meteorological Institute and its international partner institutions such as European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT).

Hard to tell exactly how they create the online forecasts...maybe some mix of their own model and ecmwf.

[Mattty]

Can someone please give me a TL;DR or a glossary of terms in the thread?

What's a run? 

What are the numbers with z's next to them?

What are the other things?

[SwedgeAntilles]

1 minute ago, Mattty said:

Can someone please give me a TL;DR or a glossary of terms in the thread?

What's a run? 

What are the numbers with z's next to them?

What are the other things?

1. A kinda quick-paced bimble

2. Ounces 

3. Holograms 

[jfaragher]

2 minutes ago, Mattty said:

Can someone please give me a TL;DR or a glossary of terms in the thread?

What's a run? 

What are the numbers with z's next to them?

What are the other things?

A run is what a weather model does.  So if the US weather service updates it weather model twice a day, you'd say they have two runs a day.  z = zulu time = UTC = GMT - basically 00z is midnight GMT (1 AM British summer time) - everyone in weather uses GMT for reference.  G(E)FS - Global (Ensemble) Forecast System - the US weather model.  ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting - world leaders in medium range forecasts (5 to 30 days).

[Thunderstruck]

5 minutes ago, Mattty said:

Can someone please give me a TL;DR or a glossary of terms in the thread?

What's a run? 

What are the numbers with z's next to them?

What are the other things?

a run - refers to a new set of weather charts produced by a model

the 00z etc are the times zulu that each run is started

the other things - god knows, there's millions!