Weather 2017

[fur_q]

3 hours ago, jfaragher said:

Update to this post, with a graph for Big__Phil.  More red and green is better, presuming you don't want rain...

Compared to yesterday, with added graph

 Good work

Here's my effort, it uses an r script to extract and calculate the daily accumulated rainfall for each gfs ensemble member for the latest 4 runs and plot them on a chart.

 

X axis is total accumulated daily rainfall in mm
Y axis is the day/date
 
Each GFS ensemble member is represented by the points (dots  - different colours represent the 4 different runs in the last 24 hours), the lines are the linear trends.
The so the points represent the range of likely outcomes and the more tightly they are clustered (closer together) across the x axis the more confidence we have in the forecast.

To summarise

Dry today and tomorrow, some rain Thursday but the later runs are predicting this to not be as bad as previously thought. Then Largely dry over Friday and the weekend

Into festival week forecasts are becoming progressively less certain Monday Tuesday and Wednesday of next week may see some rain but this is by non means guaranteed and shouldn't amount to much.
 
Very limited confidence for the main festival weekend most runs suggesting we shouldn't see more than a few mms of rain a day but with a small chance it could be worse. 

Edited June 13, 2017 by fur_q

[Thunderstruck]

5 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

Horrible 6z run. Best not be a pattern forming

warm and wet! Lets wait for the ensembles...

[Glasto Weatherwatch]

7 minutes ago, Aragorn said:

Horrible 6z run. Best not be a pattern forming

FRIDAY 

[sisco]

37 minutes ago, JoBalls said:

If you buy a really expensive pair of wellies, Sod's law says it will be gloriously sunny all festival. 

I think you've gotta take one for the team here.

Ok ok I'm buying wellies!

[Bluebella]

Potentially hot, humid and thundery according to some of the model watchers.

[DownboundTrain52]

4 minutes ago, fur_q said:

 Good work

Here's my effort, it uses an r script to extract and calculate the daily accumulated rainfall for each gfs ensemble member for the latest 4 runs and plot them on a chart.

 

X axis is total accumulated daily rainfall in mm
Y axis is the day/date
 
Each GFS ensemble member is represented by the points (dots  - different colours represent the 4 different runs in the last 24 hours), the lines are the linear trends.
The so the points represent the range of likely outcomes and the more tightly they are clustered (closer together) across the x axis the more confidence we have in the forecast.

To summarise

Dry today and tomorrow, some rain Thursday but the later runs are predicting this to not be as bad as previously thought. Then Largely dry over Friday and the weekend

Into festival week forecasts are becoming progressively less certain Monday Tuesday and Wednesday of next week may see some rain but this is by non means guaranteed and shouldn't amount to much.
 
Very limited confidence for the main festival weekend most runs suggesting we shouldn't see more than a few mms of rain a day but with a small chance it could be worse. 

Would you be able to - in idiot speak - say how that compares to the run up and into the festival last year?  

[eastynh]

9 minutes ago, Bluebella said:

Potentially hot, humid and thundery according to some of the model watchers.

They need to watch Claudia Schiffer then rather than Naomi Campbell. Claudia is just glorious.

[mario man]

10 minutes ago, Bluebella said:

Potentially hot, humid and thundery according to some of the model watchers.

cough 2005! 

[Untz]

Just now, mario man said:

cough 2005! 

2005 (without that pesky storm) would be absolutely great weather.

[DownboundTrain52]

How was 2005? Too young to have even known what Glastonbury was then.

[Bluebella]

I love a good thunder storm as much as anyone but being out in those fields when the thunder and lightning hits brings a whole new level of excitement to Glastonbury.

[squirrelarmy]

54 minutes ago, JoBalls said:

If you buy a really expensive pair of wellies, Sod's law says it will be gloriously sunny all festival. 

I think you've gotta take one for the team here.

I bought wellies and then customised them with paint sticker,s and LED lights. Of course the weather will be such that I won't need to wear them.

[mario man]

2 minutes ago, DownboundTrain52 said:

How was 2005? Too young to have even known what Glastonbury was then.

It was extremely hot on the Weds & thurs, then the mother of all thunderstorms bought a months worth of rain in 6 hours...after that...all good again!

Edited June 13, 2017 by mario man

[The Nal]

4 minutes ago, DownboundTrain52 said:

How was 2005? 

[Spindles]

49 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

That's bloody marvellous! Even better than the other one posted somewhere...rather mesmerising!

It really is.  Bookmarked

Those 2005 pics never fail to impress.

[broken monkey]

The silver tent in the above picture was mine. *shudders*

[DownboundTrain52]

6 minutes ago, mario man said:

It was extremely hot on the Weds & thurs, then the mother of all thunderstorms bought a months worth of rain in 6 hours...after that...all good again!

That doesn't sound too bad...

 

6 minutes ago, The Nal said:

That seems infinitely worse and also indescribably British  

Please no flooding like that. Which campsite was it?!?

[JoeyT]

This very day around this time last year our very own fun sponge Nal posted this chart from yr.no:

Right now this very website is showing precisely 0mm of rain in the exact same timeframe.

[barkley87]

9 minutes ago, DownboundTrain52 said:

How was 2005? Too young to have even known what Glastonbury was then.

Wow, now I feel old.

[Maurice Mecca]

Did the guys who brought a kayak to the festival have some kind of premonition?

[ivan]

3 minutes ago, DownboundTrain52 said:

How was 2005? Too young to have even known what Glastonbury was then.

Here is my take on it.

I had been at since I got on site , and sat outside our tents in early hours my mate said there is a storm coming so we decided to call it a night.  I thought I would not sleep due to certain substances but due to the lack of sleep since the Tuesday I was out like a light .  I vaguely remember it raining but that's about it.  We camp on big ground and so were in no danger of flooding etc.  When morning came my partner at the time rang me really worried.  "Festival could be cancelled " " Dance Tent on fire hit by lightening " "People missing presumed drowned " "No one can leave or get onto site "  She wanted to make sure I was ok and safe. 

I poked my head outside of my tent and said to her " everything looks fine to me "

I remember I got up later and my first band was British Sea Power , I dressed in all my wet weather gear - and not long after sun came out and I was boiling with about 4 layers on 

[The Nal]

7 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

This very day around this time last year our very own fun sponge Nal posted this chart from yr.no:

 

Right now this very website is showing precisely 0mm of rain in the exact same timeframe.

Don't get cocky! 

[JoeyT]

4 minutes ago, The Nal said:

Don't get cocky! 

Someone's got to be. This is me chasing the latest gfs run around in the octagon earlier.

[JoeyT]

Also folks, we were on 180 pages of this thread by the time gates opened last year...

59 pages at the equivalent time / day as now so 100+ more pages of this before we even get there

[The Nal]

9 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Someone's got to be. This is me chasing the latest gfs run around in the octagon earlier.

Just shy of throwing the famous Bath slap