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Are we In or Out?


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Are we IN or OUT?  

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  1. 1. Are we IN or OUT

    • IN
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1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

thanks.

So that's very definitely self-selecting, and while I'm sure yougov doesn't just take the first ones to do any survey as the sample, when the initial input data is that flawed there's no method that can accurately model around that.

Its 'usually' not that flawed, as the invitations are selected. 

 

51 minutes ago, p.pete said:

KrisKross's link seems to show an imbalance of 25-49 year olds - presumably those sat at a desk (like me) - thought they would swing it towards remain?

There are low numbers in the sample relative to the population. If there is a bias to one side in the ones that do respond, then it'll be magnified by the modelling. 

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9 minutes ago, krisskross said:

Its 'usually' not that flawed, as the invitations are selected. 

But the very people who have self selected themselves by signing up aren't typical in the first place.

They're then trying to refine the known-imperfect data using an unvalidated modelling method.

I'm a big fan of polls in general, but this is a very long way from random sampling as its starting point, and when you then add in that there's no strictly-relevant past data to build a model from, it screams nightmare at me.

There's part of me wants to type that it should be giving itself a bigger margin of error than election polls, tho from what i can remember MoE is calculated from sample size against whole population and errors in modelling don't come into it.

 

9 minutes ago, krisskross said:

There are low numbers in the sample relative to the population. If there is a bias to one side in the ones that do respond, then it'll be magnified by the modelling. 

they've little of relevance to model against. this is a one-off.

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2 hours ago, Dave F. said:

The vast majority of deals that we'd leave behind can be renegotiated.

Over a period of 2 years to 15 years?

2 hours ago, Dave F. said:

It's ridiculous to intimate, as some remainers have, that Europol won't pick up phone if Scotland Yard or MI6 call with strategic information.

Yes, good job you know better than the chief of Europol - https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/mar/24/europol-chief-rob-wainwright-brexit-mistake-uk-security-richard-dearlove

 

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15 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

But the very people who have self selected themselves by signing up aren't typical in the first place.

They're then trying to refine the known-imperfect data using an unvalidated modelling method.

By grouping the results into age-education gender, employment, past voting they are able to mitigate that. 

 

17 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

There's part of me wants to type that it should be giving itself a bigger margin of error than election polls, tho from what i can remember MoE is calculated from sample size against whole population and errors in modelling don't come into it.

If you look at the margin of errors in the polls being reported they cant get much bigger.. Its sometimes from 30-70% for either side. 

21 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I'm a big fan of polls in general, but this is a very long way from random sampling as its starting point, and when you then add in that there's no strictly-relevant past data to build a model from, it screams nightmare at me.

Yeah, there are only two options though..shouldn't be that hard!

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1 minute ago, Redwinevino said:

Really starting to think/worry we are going to leave.

If we do, we do. That's democracy, warts and all.

There's not much point with the finger of blame afterwards - tho a few 'told you so's will be in order - and instead we just have to suck it up and get on with it the best we can.

The path to a better tomorrow is to accept where the people are and to work forwards from that. I suspect they'll be a lot of the opposite of that tho. ;)

 

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Financial Times has come out for remain.

Quote

The positive case for Britain in the EU is easily made. To abandon the cause of constructive reform of an admittedly imperfect EU would be more than defeatist. It would be a gratuitous act of self-harm. Business leaders have a duty to spell out the cost of leaving before it is too late.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/3748166e-3151-11e6-ad39-3fee5ffe5b5b.html

 

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5 minutes ago, Junglist1981 said:

Financial Times has come out for remain.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/3748166e-3151-11e6-ad39-3fee5ffe5b5b.html

 

Because, of course, from a trade point of view it's a no-brainer.

Leave have lied and lied and lied about that aspect of things, but for most out-ers it's nothing to do with trade anyway, it's to do with immigration and only immigration.

 

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Just now, eFestivals said:

Because, of course, from a trade point of view it's a no-brainer.

Leave have lied and lied and lied about that aspect of things, but for most out-ers it's nothing to do with trade anyway, it's to do with immigration and only immigration.

 

Interesting point is that as % of immigrants as part of the population rises in an area the more likely you are to remain. So it is the people who are least affected directly by immigration who are voting to leave (largely on immigration/control the borders rhetoric)

Handed my postal vote in today and voted remain. Would have voted out if there had been more a 'lexit' but not willing to risk leaving at the hands of Johnson, Gove and Farage

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Just now, eFestivals said:

Because, of course, from a trade point of view it's a no-brainer.

Leave have lied and lied and lied about that aspect of things, but for most out-ers it's nothing to do with trade anyway, it's to do with immigration and only immigration.

 

There surely must come a point where at least some of them stop and think "Hang on a moment, maybe intentionally damaging the country and sparking a recession isn't the best way to deal with the migration problem".

You'd hope so anyway.

I look forward to shoving the recession in leavers faces as and when it happens. Will offer a small crumb of comfort as public services take even more of a bashing.

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There's an interesting story here:

https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/76166/brexit-concert-cancelled-organisers-blame-electoral

Essentially, the Brexit folk were trying to run a rally/concert in Birmingham on Sunday. Obviously that's not easy as everything needs to be tracked against campaign spending allowances, so there's a lot of paperwork to ensure the rules are followed and it's accounted for correctly.

The Brexit folk basically assumed they'd be able to figure all that out, and booked bands, booked a venue and started selling tickets. They didn't know how they were going to deal with the funding issues and Electoral Commission admin requirements but assumed someone must be able to figure it out and just pushed on regardless.

And of course, it's less than a week away when the Electoral Commission go "no, do the paperwork or we'll shut it down" and of course, it ends up being called off.

On the one hand, it's a funny story of incompetence, but on the other hand, it's the entire leave campaign in a nutshell for me. There's an assumption that we're just too big to fail, that we'll be able to get trade agreements that meet or better those we got in the EU, that everyone will still want to work with us... There's no plan around how that will happen, just the assumption that someone's going to figure it out - they'll have to, otherwise we'll end up in a recession again or have an economic crash and we're just too special for that to happen to us.

It's that blind optimism let by a weird sort of nationalistic privilege.

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3 minutes ago, stocky3000 said:

Interesting point is that as % of immigrants as part of the population rises in an area the more likely you are to remain. So it is the people who are least affected directly by immigration who are voting to leave (largely on immigration/control the borders rhetoric)

Yep.

My take on this (as a generalisation) is that the largest immigration is in the bigger towns and cities, and that when those people from the surrounds come into their local big town or city the number of non-white faces that they see smacks them in the face because they see nothing like it in their local area. That unfamiliarity is what scares them.

It was identified years ago that when those who raise immigration as a big problem are asked where those big problems are taking place, they invariably say not in their area but that it's a problem in an unidentified 'elsewhere'. The whole thing is nuts.

(PS: the above is a generalisation, an over-all take on things ... there's also exceptions, for example, there's almost no non-white skins that people in cornwall will be seeing but they're very anti, and there's high levels of eastern European immigration in a few areas which will cause a different take on things).

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9 minutes ago, Junglist1981 said:

There surely must come a point where at least some of them stop and think "Hang on a moment, maybe intentionally damaging the country and sparking a recession isn't the best way to deal with the migration problem".

that would require the joined-up thinking that they don't have to have already arrived at their view-point. ;)

The most laughable thing about the immigration from the EU thing is that much of it has been directly caused by the 2007-08 crash, which the EU had almost nothing to do with but where the UK holds a significant amount of blame.

And then the out-ers point at the damage the UK has caused and say "look, the EU is failing".

Yeah, it's failing so much that the "disastrous" Euro is about 20% stronger than the glorious pound over the Euro's lifetime. :lol:

 

9 minutes ago, Junglist1981 said:

I look forward to shoving the recession in leavers faces as and when it happens.

I agree with the sentiment. :)

I'm not sure it'd be a great move tho. Whichever way the vote goes we need to all accept it and move forwards together, rather than go with the further-divisive.

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12 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

I agree with the sentiment. :)

I'm not sure it'd be a great move tho. Whichever way the vote goes we need to all accept it and move forwards together, rather than go with the further-divisive.

Fair point, but the occasional heavily sarcastic post on facebook will definitely make me feel better :)

And you just know that the likes of Gove, Johnson and Farrage will try to blame the recession on other factors, or try and talk it away. I'm happy to move forward together, but not when those ****s are involved!

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6 minutes ago, Junglist1981 said:

And you just know that the likes of Gove, Johnson and Farrage will try to blame the recession on other factors, or try and talk it away.

dunno if you watched the Gove QT special last night, but he initially talked  about how the road would be bumpy, only to have Dimbleby challenge him on what exactly that meant ..,.  only for him to say that there'd be bumps whatever path we took.

While that might be strictly true, it's also disingenuous / mendacious to lay it out in that way ..... but he's covered his arse and can throw it back in people's faces by saying "i said this and you voted for it. I have a mandate".

And only then will many out-ers realise how they've been taken for mugs. ;)

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I've just been informed by my elections office that they never received the hand-delivered postal vote application form I submitted to them on the 31st of May so I won't be allowed to exercise my democratic right in what will no doubt be the most important referendum of my generation. I'm over the moon. 

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