Jeremy Corbyn

[eFestivals]

4 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

It's silly, but it's an interesting example of how Corbyn has reframed the debate. The Trident-without-nukes is now that much wanted centre ground, the pro-Trident option now looks like the actual right-wing Tory policy that it is, and the anti view, while not having a huge amount of support, is at least being considered.

That's the impact that Corbyn is having. Whether you think that worthwhile or not is a different question. And yes, it's likely not an election winning strategy (though if Corbyn is replaced by a more centrist candidate, they'll benefit from having the Overton window moved over a bit).

Nope, you've understood nothing of what I wrote.

The Trident-without-nukes is the morons option.

It's a clear indicator that they don't understand the subject, and so no weight should be put on their opinion, because their opinion is not going to stay in that same place when they get wised up to the facts around it.

And even if they never get wised up to the facts, that option won't remain on the table for them to choose - because others will wise up to it being the morons option and it will get taken off the table because it's just not credible.

[alframsey]

On 1 February 2016 at 1:32 PM, Winslow Leach said:

And if Labour keep failing to challenge the narrative that the last cash happened on their watch and is therefore largely their fault, and fail to embed any counter narrative, then they still won't be seen as capable hands to leave an economy in. It's one of the fundamental errors they've kept making over the last few years.

And you really think that Corbyn and his camp are blameless victims of the party squabbling? He's equally unwilling to allow the PLP to act as a party and as the official opposition, rather than as his, McDonnell and Milne's private pressure group. (By the way I'm not sure if you saw before, but I asked you for your opinion of Milne being the Director of Strategy and Comms? Genuinely intrigued to know)

Osborne is looking increasingly unlikely to be the next Tory leader. He may well be, but it's no sure thing and it's foolish to base Labour's chances of success on both Osborne being leader and the entire country turning against him.

There's the rub. There's nothing concrete to back up your hunch and that's a huge gamble to take.

In all honesty I know very little about Milne, I'll do a bit of research an get back to you.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

Interesting story in the independent, shows how its easy to believe hes doing badly when its never reported when he gains support.....http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/the-jeremy-corbyn-story-that-nobody-wanted-to-publish-a6848651.html

I guess you're too young to remember the Red Wedge tour? That worked out well in 1983, eh?

We already know that Corbyn has support from the already-converted.

We also know that he's not converting anyone new, but repelling people instead.

[p.pete]

20 hours ago, eFestivals said:

Nope, you've understood nothing of what I wrote.

Be more clear, or accept people will draw the conclusion that they want to?  It's a frustrating world...

[Mardy]

Aaaarrgh, how can one man be so right about politics and so goddam wrong about music?

[eFestivals]

33 minutes ago, p.pete said:

Be more clear, or accept people will draw the conclusion that they want to?  It's a frustrating world...

Yep, I guess I didn't do a great job. ... let's try again....

The "Trident without nukes" option is just not anything credible as a defence policy.

It only has credibility as a "let's not piss off the unions, so they can keep their overly-expensive jobs for no purpose whatsoever" option ... which just isn't going to stand up under any circumstances.

Edited February 3, 2016 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

52 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

no mate you dont know that at all, noone knows that

Not true.

Do you think I've met no one who's said "I won't vote Labour now", or seen thousands and thousands and thousands of comments by other people saying the same?

And more than my own personal experience, there's also been poll after poll after poll which has demonstrated the same.

 

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personally my own experience goes against that anyway,

Then that's your bubble. Get out more.

 

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never known so much interest in politics locally to me at the moment, never known so many anti cuts/tory groups set up and running as there are at the mo, never known so much interest in politics from young people in my area......and guess who most of those people support and cite as an influence for peaking such interest? it aint cameron ill tell you that much pal!

And that's a great thing. A greater thing would be if they also got out and voted, but I know that a large proportion of them won't.

But anyway, nothing of their interest demonstrates a Labour victory. The *only* out-of-the-bubble indicators available show that support for Labour is shrinking and not rising.

 

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you really need to change the record, all this woe is me we`re all doomed, corbyn is rubbish crap while jumping on every little irrelevant tidbit you can find to scrape together an argument and ignoring or slamming anything which suggests the opposite? I think you just dont like the man tbh....

I don't much care about Jeremy, but you shoot the messenger if you think that makes Jezza's message more credible.

I do care about a Labour victory, and there's not a jot of anything to suggest Jezza is making that more likely. There's plenty of stuff to suggest it's making it less likely.

 

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and you would believe anything before you would ever admit he was doing better then you claim. so its a pointless argument isnt it? with you at least.

I'd be extremely happy to see the polls for Labour soar under Jezza. He's too right wing for me, but he'd be better than every Labour govt I've had in my lifetime.

But I'm not so daft as to think my vote puts him in No 10. It's the people who voted tory in May he needs to convince, and he's not.

 

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Mind you I should have figured that out from the start where you didnt even `have` an argument unless you were able to twist my words and make up shit haha

Independent evidence is a great thing, and should always be referenced. Do you have any supporting independent evidence, or do you just have the shouties?

Edited February 3, 2016 by eFestivals

[Winslow Leach]

A bloke down the pub told me that Corbyn could win so I now agree with thatcrazypenguin.

[eFestivals]

14 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

See this is why I cant take you seriously....how could you possibly know that?

Because it's a well-know fact, observed thru countless elections over the years.

Young people might be passionate about what they think, but (compared to other age groups) they don't follow that thru at the ballot box.

If it changes for the better, that's a great thing and I welcome it. But until it happens, it's foolish to be thinking that it is going to happen.

 

14 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

Why do you think these people are now into politics?

There's always young people who are new to politics. In every generation they say (just as I did) they're going to make that big difference that hasn't been made before.

It doesn't happen.

It would be great if it did. I hope I'm wrong, but I wouldn't put money on me being wrong.

14 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

Because they are finally fed up of what weve got and they finally see someone who isnt just out for lining his/her own pockets they can get behind

Do you think that's a new phenomenon to just this generation?

Is this like the thing where every new generation also thinks they invented sex?

14 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

many of those youngsters havnt been inspired enough to engage with the process or vote.....corbyn changes that, and that my friend is a deal changer! 

When you're a bit older you'll understand why I'm saying "I've heard all this before".

I want you to be right, all the same. But there's not a jot of evidence to suggest that you are.

Perhaps you'll be able to point to massive Labour gains in May and a big increased turn out in younger voters, and so prove me wrong. I doubt you will be able to.

 

Edited February 3, 2016 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

ITS a good tactic by corbyn if you ask me, hes setting out to appeal to the younger generations as he knows they are the future of this country and they will ultimately decide its future

Or alternatively, they're the only ones who haven't been around long enough to know where that line leads to.

But even if you're right about the huge groundwell of support, nothing about that support means it's well-founded. If you look north you can see people demanding a better fairer Scotland with more social justice, while condemning suggestions of tax rises*, and failing to notice that you can't have more with 15% less.

(* they do the same version as the tory version of "taxes are for other people to pay")

 

8 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

....theres a reason why a lot of the new activist groups im seeing formed are set up by young people......they have been some of the hardest hit of all by the tories esp when it comes to education changes and being deemed irrelevent by plans like not giving housing benefit to anyone under 25 etc....they are the ones most likly to rise up in anger and vote the tories out and corbyn knows this.....they sure as hell arent going to vote tory thats for sure! 

Please, put the bubble down and step away from it. It's about to go off.

I see you didn't bother with the evidence I asked for, again, and think shoutie makes up for it.

[eFestivals]

17 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

yes because not going down that line so far has led us so well hasn't it mate!

Just because where we are is shit doesn't get to mean that things can't be shitter.

(the line you've taken there is an identical one to the snippers in Scotland, that because they hate the tories [and Labour even more] anything different must be better. It's shallow).

Why do you think people voted tory in May, penguin? Do you think they did that because they didn't understand what the tories would do, or because they did and preferred it to the alternative?

 

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I dont understand what evidence your asking for......the topic seems to be if corbyn can be elected in 2020 or not...I am not foolish enough to think I can tell the state of the country or public opinion in 4 years time, ill; leave that to the naysayers eh?

You're saying there's a massive swell of support for him.

There's no evidence of that. None at all.

What there is is a lot of people enthusiastic about Corbyn, but those people were the already-converted. It's not new people (tho they might be new as Labour members).

Labour needs to enthuse new people, and not make the existing ones more enthusiastic (tho that's not a bad thing in itself, of course). More enthusiasm from the same people doesn't equal the extra votes Labour needs.

If Corbyn shouted about the things people really care about, maybe he'd have a chance. You know, housing, the NHS, jobs, wages, etc.

But no, he wants to shout about Trident and make that *THE* issue, an issue no one much cares about in the grander scheme of things, where there's no beneficial money from its cancellation from which social policies can be paid for - yet that's not stopped Corbyn from spending the saved money (that *cannot* be saved) multiple times over all the same.

(why's there no money from cancelling the Trident replacement? Cos it comes from the defence budget, which is ringfenced by our NATO membership obligations ... there's a tiny tiny tiny chance Corbyn might win a no-nukes argument, there's absolutely zero chance he could win a no-NATO argument).

Jezza is foriegn policy wonk. That's not going to change, and so he's not going to change the country.

Edited February 3, 2016 by eFestivals

[meepmoop]

Also kind of the opinion politics shouldn't get mixed too much into glasto (whilst yes I am aware glasto has a history with politics) - I've no problem with the festival promoting certain viewpoints but I feel going as far as bringing in MP's would just bring a lot of unwanted negativity to the place.

[Spindles]

 

 

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, meepmoop said:

Also kind of the opinion politics shouldn't get mixed too much into glasto (whilst yes I am aware glasto has a history with politics) - I've no problem with the festival promoting certain viewpoints but I feel going as far as bringing in MP's would just bring a lot of unwanted negativity to the place.

glasto has been "bringing in MP's" for most of its life.

It's part of what makes it different, and I hope that doesn't change.

[DeanoL]

3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

We also know that he's not converting anyone new, but repelling people instead.

I was on the fence about voting Labour last election. I hadn't intended to but literally changed my mind at the polling station. I'd have no such doubts with Corbyn.

But I guess I'm the only person like that and other people like that don't exist.

[DeanoL]

3 hours ago, eFestivals said:

I do care about a Labour victory, and there's not a jot of anything to suggest Jezza is making that more likely. There's plenty of stuff to suggest it's making it less likely.

Less likely than what? Than in 2015? Because just repeating 2015 with the exact same odds isn't an option. And Milliband staying on would also be a different set of circumstances.

[eFestivals]

9 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

I simply go by what I see in my own area and what I see happening over the country as a whole, as I said particularly when it comes to young people

What you see is your bubble.

 

9 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

.....I cant give you `evidence` of that and you know that because no physical evidence exists, however likewise you cannot give me evidence that corbyn is tanking the labour party and they will have no chance of election under his lead in 2020.simple logic as well

You're not doing logic at all. Logic references evidence, it doesn't dismiss it on the basis of nothing at all.

And yes, I can give you evidence. They're called 'opinion polls'.

Every single one of those opinion polls says that Jezza is in the worst possible position of any leader of any major party at any time to go on to victory.

 

9 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

......you want to tell me all these young people suddenly engaged in politics are in it for the tory party?

Where the fuck did you get that from?

Perhaps try actually reading stuff, rather than make it up in your head?

 

9 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

you think the tories offer anything for these generations?

Yep, I do.

People want jobs, and there's jobs. People want housing, and there's housing. People want the opportunity to go to Uni, and there's the opportunity to go to Uni. People want to be able to buy the things they want, and most are able to get themselves the latest gadget they want. Etc, etc, etc.

Those things might not be configured in the way you or I might want them to be, but that's not how everyone sees it.

And even plenty of those who want what you want might see the tories as better-delivering those things than Corbyn might manage. Just because he says he'll create a wonderful world doesn't get to mean that'll be what's created.

 

9 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

who do you think these people being absolutely shat on by the current government are going to vote for when they are given a chance?

Do you think the last govt shat on no one?

They got voted back in, with more votes than ever. That's not an irrelevance.

 

9 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

do you honestly think they will forget all of that and turn into young tories? because thats what it would take for them to achieve power once again.

Those young people may or may not turn into tories. However,  I know that plenty will, because that's how it always goes.

But that aside, no one has to turn into a tory for the tories to win again. The tories have the numbers on their side already.

And that's before we get to the 800,000 who have disappeared off the electoral role via the new/different voter registration, and where an overly-significant chunk of those are young people.

And that's before we get to the re-configured constituencies for the next election, that's worth about 30 extra seats to the tories.
(and before you start about 'gerrymandering' by the tories over that, it's bollocks despite being a big headache for Labour)

The numbers right now are on the tories side. Corbyn needs to change that, and he's not changing that so far.

 

[eFestivals]

28 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

a great man....just shame his son doesn't share the same philosophy it appears.

yeah, because war is a left/right issue...?

Shallow. very shallow.

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I was on the fence about voting Labour last election. I hadn't intended to but literally changed my mind at the polling station. I'd have no such doubts with Corbyn.

But I guess I'm the only person like that and other people like that don't exist.

Given what the polls said beforehand and how the vote actually went, while there might be some who lean your way, those polls and then the vote suggest the leaning is far FAR more the other way.

Edited February 3, 2016 by eFestivals

[arcade fireman]

10 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I was on the fence about voting Labour last election. I hadn't intended to but literally changed my mind at the polling station. I'd have no such doubts with Corbyn.

But I guess I'm the only person like that and other people like that don't exist.

But you still voted Labour. There were plenty of other people who would have done the same - who weren't inspired by Miliband but who voted Labour because the only other alternative was the horrible reality we have now. The fact you voted Labour last time means that Corbyn isn't gaining an extra voter from you or anyone like you. 

We have some who voted Green. But the Green vote wasn't really that big. Only 3%. Even if Labour get half of those lot back, still not a big difference.

Who else? The non voters? We had our highest turnout for a generation. There really isn't that many voters to mine. 

Now do you seriously think Corbyn is going to hang on to all the Labour voters from 2015? Consider this poll: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12087246/Labour-voters-are-losing-faith-in-Jeremy-Corbyn.html - published in the Telegraph but polled by Yougov. 

Even amongst Labour voters from 2015 his approval rating is only just above zero net. And dropping fast. There were inevitably be some people who voted Labour in 2015 who don't like the change in the party who will vote other parties. There are people who voted Labour in 2015 who voted Tories or Lib Dem in 2010. Do you think the vast majority of those people will stay with Labour? 

So you saying you almost didn't vote Labour but did in the end is really not that relevant. 

Edited February 3, 2016 by arcade fireman

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

Those young people may or may not turn into tories. However,  I know that plenty will, because that's how it always goes.

But that aside, no one has to turn into a tory for the tories to win again. The tories have the numbers on their side already.

And that's before we get to the 800,000 who have disappeared off the electoral role via the new/different voter registration, and where an overly-significant chunk of those are young people.

And that's before we get to the re-configured constituencies for the next election, that's worth about 30 extra seats to the tories.
(and before you start about 'gerrymandering' by the tories over that, it's bollocks despite being a big headache for Labour)

The numbers right now are on the tories side. Corbyn needs to change that, and he's not changing that so far.

 

But when you present all that... to me that strengthens the case for someone like Corbyn. If 2020 was to be just like 2015, then yes, all that's really needed is someone marginally better than Ed, to tip things over the other way. I think that's a reasonable proposition. But if the argument goes that Labour are actually far, far further behind than the Tory majority of 5 suggests, then you do in fact need someone to shake up the entire party. Because they're not going to win a fight on the same grounds as five years ago -there needs to be fundamental changes in one direction or the other.

[arcade fireman]

1 minute ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

about as shallow as you thinking his pro war stance is the only reason I dislike him(again putting opinions and words into my head it seems).....nice job defending the torys above as well your exactly the person we should be letting decide the future of the labour party eh? after all who needs enemys as the saying goes!........

Seriously mate, I can write what you know about politics on the back of a postage stamp. Your sheer inability to understand how politics and elections work is staggering. You say things like "not in my experience" without even a hint of irony! Politics isn't about your experience. There are around 30 million votes cast in each election. You refuse to accept objective evidence like polls and instead point to what activists are doing, as if that's any kind of a predictor as to how the country would vote. 

[arcade fireman]

3 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

But when you present all that... to me that strengthens the case for someone like Corbyn. If 2020 was to be just like 2015, then yes, all that's really needed is someone marginally better than Ed, to tip things over the other way. I think that's a reasonable proposition. But if the argument goes that Labour are actually far, far further behind than the Tory majority of 5 suggests, then you do in fact need someone to shake up the entire party. Because they're not going to win a fight on the same grounds as five years ago -there needs to be fundamental changes in one direction or the other.

Your fundamental change will give the Tories a 100 seat majority at least and a majority so large it might take Labour until 2030 to overturn it. 

If any of what you were saying is true, Corbyn's approval ratings would be rising as people heard more of him. They are getting worse and worse. Labour are slipping further and further behind in the polls. 

You Corbynites present a false dichotomy. That what we have to choose from is either Corbyn or "more of the same". Really Labour have a few potential leaders (Jarvis, Starmer..maybe Umuna but to be honest he's too Tory for my tastes too) all of whom would have a different vision and different style of leading the party. Politics is a spectrum, not a binary choice. 

But where Labour failed in 2010 and 2015 most of all was having a leader who could present himself well. Who could be relatively impervious to the attacks in the media, who looked and sounded the part. In Corbyn, they have basically gone for more of the same again. Maybe not on policies - but on arguably the thing which wins elections even more than policies. 

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

about as shallow as you thinking his pro war stance is the only reason I dislike him(again putting opinions and words into my head it seems)

Feel free to fill me in over the other reasons.

Which would only be reasons where Benn resonates with the public view - you know, the view of working people, the types Labour says it stands for - more-so than Corbyn does, don't forget.

 

8 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

.....nice job defending the torys above

Fuck me, how shallow do you want to prove you are?

I simply referenced the sort of stuff that people want politicians to deliver for them, and which the tories are delivering.

Whether or not anyone might deliver those things in a better way is no part of that.

However, whether people think the tories will deliver those things in the be4ter way than aternatives isn't up for debate, given the last election result and the polls since.

 

8 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

as well your exactly the person we should be letting decide the future of the labour party eh? after all who needs enemys as the saying goes!........

PMSL.

If the line is that Labour doesn't want the support of any Labour supporter that doesn't buy every morsel of Corbyn, how do you think the next election might go?

FFS.

[Keithy]

47 minutes ago, thatcrazypenguin said:

I cant give you `evidence` of that and you know that because no physical evidence exists

That statement does rather remind me of Dr Fox 

 

"Now that is scientific fact. There's no real evidence for it, but it is scientific fact."