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mayoral elections


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#81 rug568

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Posted 04 May 2012 - 11:07 PM

Johnson seems like he's treating it as one big joke.

#82 Ed209

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Posted 04 May 2012 - 11:11 PM

Chief analyst at YouGov:


[Boris Johnson] has a clear lead. It is currently running at about 4 percentage points. Boris was up 1 point from four years ago. Ken is up 3 points from four years ago. So the gap has closed by 2. The gap was 6. The gap is now 4. It may change very slightly with the remaining 5 seats. But not by much.
[What we are seeing with second preferences] is that Ken is slightly ahead, but there's not much in it. So if Boris is coming out 3 or 4 points ahead on the first count, as I think he wil, that's too big a lead for Ken to overturn. So my prediction is that Boris will be up at around 51 and a half, 52%, Ken 48, 48 and a half per cent. A tantalisingly narrow vote. But I think it is just wide enough, with the figures we've got, to say Boris has won.


Boris 51.5%
Ken 48.5%

YouGov analyst was spot on 4 hours ago, as I expected. People like that don't risk their reputations by making foolish calls. He knows his shit

#83 lharris92

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Posted 04 May 2012 - 11:24 PM

can't help but agree with ken, probably looking at a future tory leader in bojo, also the smear campaign possibly worked a bit as well. only 58000ish votes in it at the end. ah well

#84 Alcatraz

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Posted 04 May 2012 - 11:28 PM

can't help but agree with ken, probably looking at a future tory leader in bojo, also the smear campaign possibly worked a bit as well. only 58000ish votes in it at the end. ah well

He's the new darling child of the right-wing of the Party. He'll stand for Parilament in 3 years time and if things go tits up for Cameron in 2015, he'll be the new leader

#85 Alcatraz

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Posted 04 May 2012 - 11:34 PM

There's a very interesting North-South split in London between Labour and Conservative respecitvely in the Assembly votes. It's a city which Is gonna face extraordinary social problems in the next 4 years.

Good job they elected Bor......oh

#86 thesecretingredientiscrime

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Posted 04 May 2012 - 11:46 PM

can't help but agree with ken, probably looking at a future tory leader in bojo, also the smear campaign possibly worked a bit as well. only 58000ish votes in it at the end. ah well



Isn't it odd that it was about 60,000 that had to be recounted? ;)


In all seriousness (well that was partially serious), not as bad as it was looking this morning. I don't think Cameron will be going out celebrating it, as it's fairly obvious they took a beating even though they did win, and it's even more obvious he fecking despises Boris. Fairly certain I just saw on twitter a high amount of voters of minority parties failed to allocate their second preferences.

Leads interesting questions ahead of (albeit slightly different) the French elections with Le Pen saying not to reallocate votes. Is the lost opportunity to allocate second preferences worse than not having them at all?

#87 lharris92

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 10:26 AM

what makes it funnier is that because of all the delays, most of the papers may have gone to print all about the council losses for the tories and not about this. haven't seen any papers yet but thats what they guessed last night so it may be false.

#88 incident

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 03:17 PM

nice to see the tory's locallism bollocks get rejected. whats the deal with police commissioners, do we get a referendum on that too?

My understanding is that we don't get a referendum on that, it's just happening anyway and the election is in November.

It really pisses me off that we're going to have to pay the cost of running almost national elections (they don't even have the courtesy of holding it when another election is already taking place) to elect someone to a job that has no real powers, and then pay the no doubt inflated salary of the role holder.

I still don't understand why we're being asked to elect a regulator. If the Mayoral Referendum is any indication, I doubt we'll see any campaigning or receive any information about who or what we're being asked to vote for.

And they thought that 24% turnout in the Mayoral Referendums was low. I'll be impressed if the Police Commissioner elections manage half that. If the Tories are so intent on directly elected officials, lets start with a directly elected Prime Minister, then I'll be interested.