Football 2010-2011

[eFestivals]

Apart from Madrid having a shitload of cash, whereas Barca a bit more limited. Equally Ronaldo was Madrid's priority and they were willing to pay whatever it took to get him so as to try and close the gap, whereas Guardiola yesterday when asked whether a midfielder or forward was the priority, replied the latter (ie. Sanchez). Also Wenger has already played his "one more year" whereas Fergie hadn't at the time.

1. a player is worth what a player is worth, surely? And no one sensible think that Barca are making anything like a fair offer.

2. what Pep says at one moment is not what he necessarily means. I think the amount that gets talked of Cesc from Barca says everything about their priorities.

3. at which point Utd got silly money for Skippy, not a cut-down fee.

About Skippy, you were saying you wanted an offer - fair enough. But the missing word there is really "reasonable", as in "reasonable offer", surely? If Real had come in with a pathetic fee you'd have said they were taking the piss, that they weren't serious.

You expected the player to go, but to go at something around 'fair value'. The continual pursuit of just one player by the best team in the world says something about what that 'fair value' might be, I reckon, and your suggestions of what Arsenal will 'settle' for don't get close to that (just to make clear, I'm not suggesting Skippy-style silliness in the other direction).

(having said that, I could see Arsenal settling for that too - but it's a piss-take amount. I just don't see you taking the suggestion that Utd could have settled for similar for Skippy quite as calmly)

and we had an debate on transfer prices going down, with you saying the market was deflated, and me saying that I didn't think it had.

I'd maintain that I was right about that, but if you've easy access to the numbers we could see if they bare that out? The average spend per-player transfer for Prem clubs for the last decade would be the relevant thing to look at I reckon, but if you have another suggestion for what numbers should be crunched to prove the transfer prices trend, I'm all ears.

(I'd also say that the few transfers so far this summer probably suggest that they're on the rise again from when I made that statement in April '09)

Anyway, back to Cesc .... I'd say that the fee should be nudging towards £45M to be in the fair price bracket - cos while he's perhaps not in the really silly price bracket of Kaka and Skippy (there's another one or two I think, I forget), Barca's single-minded pursuit, and them already being the best team in the world, says that he's worth having above just about any other player in the world.

I read something the other day (in the Observer, I think) which said that Arsenal were far closer to over-taking Barca than Utd are, on the basis of Arsenal being the one team with skills nearly good enough to over-come them. It wasn't something I agreed with at the headline level, but the detail made for interesting reading, and I ended up thinking it made a fair point. I think this has a fair bit of relevance when it comes to the price for Cesc.

[eFestivals]

I said if proceedings are as stated (one bid £26m) then that's what I expect could happen, not necessarily what I believe should happen. As said, I think his value is over £40m in todays market, but Barcelona hold the better cards.

Yeah, I was perhaps a little harsh, and took it more as what you believe should happen. Soz.

But all the same, I still can't see you rationalising the situation (as was) around skippy downwards, as you've done here. In what you've just quoted of yourself, you were talking it up.

[ralph250]

1. a player is worth what a player is worth, surely? And no one sensible think that Barca are making anything like a fair offer.

2. what Pep says at one moment is not what he necessarily means. I think the amount that gets talked of Cesc from Barca says everything about their priorities.

3. at which point Utd got silly money for Skippy, not a cut-down fee.

About Skippy, you were saying you wanted an offer - fair enough. But the missing word there is really "reasonable", as in "reasonable offer", surely? If Real had come in with a pathetic fee you'd have said they were taking the piss, that they weren't serious.

You expected the player to go, but to go at something around 'fair value'. The continual pursuit of just one player by the best team in the world says something about what that 'fair value' might be, I reckon, and your suggestions of what Arsenal will 'settle' for don't get close to that (just to make clear, I'm not suggesting Skippy-style silliness in the other direction).

(having said that, I could see Arsenal settling for that too - but it's a piss-take amount. I just don't see you taking the suggestion that Utd could have settled for similar for Skippy quite as calmly)

I'd maintain that I was right about that, but if you've easy access to the numbers we could see if they bare that out? The average spend per-player transfer for Prem clubs for the last decade would be the relevant thing to look at I reckon, but if you have another suggestion for what numbers should be crunched to prove the transfer prices trend, I'm all ears.

(I'd also say that the few transfers so far this summer probably suggest that they're on the rise again from when I made that statement in April '09)

Anyway, back to Cesc .... I'd say that the fee should be nudging towards £45M to be in the fair price bracket - cos while he's perhaps not in the really silly price bracket of Kaka and Skippy (there's another one or two I think, I forget), Barca's single-minded pursuit, and them already being the best team in the world, says that he's worth having above just about any other player in the world.

I read something the other day (in the Observer, I think) which said that Arsenal were far closer to over-taking Barca than Utd are, on the basis of Arsenal being the one team with skills nearly good enough to over-come them. It wasn't something I agreed with at the headline level, but the detail made for interesting reading, and I ended up thinking it made a fair point. I think this has a fair bit of relevance when it comes to the price for Cesc.

[eFestivals]

£37m is still a ridiculous amount of money, especially for someone who quite possibly isn't going to walk into the first team - which kinda defeats the point about him being worth having above just about any other player in the world.

I agree that he probably won't be an automatic starter. But all the same they're pursuing Fabregas in a way that just about no player ever gets pursued - apart from the very best. That's not an irrelevance.

Perhaps Barca's rationale is that if Arsenal keep Cesc they have a chance of over-hauling Barca within a few years, and Barca don't want that to be able to happen. Who knows, really? There's a thousand different possible motivations for Barca, but they're ultimately of little relevance - what is relevant is that they want Cesc, and just Cesc. There's no other player they would be happy to take in his place.

So while he might not be a starter, what I said holds true. They believe him worth having above just about any other player in the world.

2. ...and that they were quite happy to splash whatever was needed to get Sanchez, yet appear to be haggling as much as they can on Fabregas could be construed as arguing differently.

oh c'mon - there's nothing unusual about this. No team pays more than they have to, and if there's factors in their favour (as there is in this case) then a team exploits them to get a lower fee.

The only really unusual circumstance here is that Barca have been happy to take a "if not now then soon" attitude, because they don't need Cesc (in the way that Chelsea might be said to 'need' Modric to be a better team), they merely want him, but want him desperately.

And yet they now appear to be past the 'prepared to wait' stage. Those words of Pep seem to say that they're determined to get him this summer, but on their terms and not the terms of the selling club. It's vastly different to (say) Utd's pursuit of Berba, because in that case - despite Spurs not wanting to sell - Utd at least met the valuation. Barca are taking the piss here.

3. Regards me accepting Ronaldo. Depends on the disparity really. If Arsenal are asking for £45m and get £37m instead then it's about 18% off the asking price. Applying that percentage to Ronaldo's fee would still mean £65m, which would've still smashed the transfer record and been a huge amount of money. Might have liked higher, but it would've been hard not to accept (on a supporter's level, not boardroom) a world record fee for a wantaway player as a reasonable offer, even if you felt he was worth more.

the thing is there is that you've worked things on the basis of everything being equal, when it's not. One club will give a valuation which is their immovable selling price, while another will take a punt with setting a stupid price that they'll come down on.

Utd didn't really need to keep hold of Skippy, because they could afford to lose him while still staying the strongest Prem team - and so they were in the position to ask for a stupid price but a price they could afford to move from; Arsenal meanwhile would be losing the heart of their team (and whatever Skippy was for Utd, he wasn't that), and particularly with the situation around Nasri too, it's a loss they can only sensibly take if their valuation is met (of course, Cesc's desire to go to Barca then also comes into the mix and means they might have to settle for less - but from Arsenal's side they've been shafted if that's what happens). If Utd had taken just £45M for skippy, while it might be much less than they'd have wanted, they could have taken that and moved on. It's not anything like the same situation at Arsenal for Cesc.

regards the deflated market talk. Not sure average spend per player would really back up the point made at the time which is that you felt the top level signings had decreased and so Ronaldo wouldn't fetch an astronomical amount. It was 2008 you said that, by the end of the window Berbatov and Robinho had both had £30m+ moves. In the prem 2008/2009 we had Nasri, Arshavin, Paylyuchenko, Modric, Keane x2, Defoe, Elmander, Jo, Fellaini, Bellamy, Bridge, De Jong, Crouch, Bentley, Andy Johnson, Milner, Coloccini also go for £10m-20m deals. Muntari was sold to Inter for around 16m euros, Lassana Diarra for around £20m to Madrid.

The following summer Ronaldo, Ibra, Kaka etc.

As I said at the time, I think it was just a case that perhaps we'd had a lull in the top players not transfering between top clubs.

(I don't think that Robinho's transfer can be considered in the mix of the others - that was at a huge premium cos he was going to a crap [at that time] club)

If it was that lull then I'd guess there's not really any way to compare prices season to season.

But all the same, the players you list were nearly all around the £20M bracket. IMO, a season before some the same players would have gone for a fair chunk more. I reckon the market has (or had) been depressed by the sheer number of players coming thru academies (which would have peaked for the first time since the introduction of those academies in around 2008), meaning that there were many more player options for clubs, and not enough clubs for the players (I know that's always happened to a degree, but it's got much worse because of the numbers coming thru academies). The academy factor depressed the market all the way thru the skill range, at least until the market adjusted to the changed situation caused by those academies.

[eFestivals]

I see that the Arse have had a £10M bid for Jagielka turned down.

That seems to have wrong-footed every footie gossip column as that's not one I've seen floating around this summer - tho it's a bid of £2M less than they made last summer.

So it looks like Wenger wants a defender but isn't prepared to go the distance to get one, the stupid git.

[Benj]

I see that the Arse have had a £10M bid for Jagielka turned down.

That seems to have wrong-footed every footie gossip column as that's not one I've seen floating around this summer - tho it's a bid of £2M less than they made last summer.

So it looks like Wenger wants a defender but isn't prepared to go the distance to get one, the stupid git.

[The Nal]

He moans about Barcelona taking the piss on Fabregas and then goes and does this!

He's not got a leg to stand on

Edited July 21, 2011 by The Nal

[eFestivals]

He moans about Barcelona taking the piss on Fabregas and then goes and does this!

He's not got a leg to stand on

While I get where you're coming from - it's a stupidly low offer - it's not even in the same ball park.....

1. Wenger or his players haven't been going around saying that Jag wants to join Arsenal, that he's being held hostage, etc, etc.

2. any club is perfectly entitled to make any offer they fancy for any player, just as the selling club is entitled to tell them to bugger off if the offer is too low in their opinion. He's made an offer, it's been rejected - end of (unless he wants to go back with a bigger offer).

While you might (and I do) consider the offer to be derisory, he's still allowed to try his luck with it if he wants - and offers like this are actually needed at the end of the day, for there to be a form of market value for players, as the market value (the best as it gets in football, anyway) is set by the rejected offers as well as the accepted offers.

There's a difference between trying your luck at getting a bargain as Wenger has tried here and trying to force thru an unreasonable and already-rejected offer which Barca are trying to do.

[TheGayTent]

£10m for jagielka? It's about £9m too much

[Wooderson]

Is there not a point that a derisory offer from a "more glamourous" club may turn a players head?

Jags to Arse? Or by way of balance Benj lad... Reina to Arse?

While I also agree that a 10mill valuation of PJags is insulting there could be more to it than the initial "hands off you cheap kents" rejection it receives.

[eFestivals]

Wenger needs a defender though, pay the extra 2 million for f**ks sake.

I reckon he'd need to go a fair bit further than that.

But he might not want to. It might be the case that he can land that Bolton defender (name has slipped my mind) that he's supposedly after at (say) £15M, but he'd consider Jag to be a better value buy at £10M but not at (say) £12M. So having had the bid for Jag knocked back he might now go for the other player instead.

It's all about relative value with these sorts of players. It only changes to 'must get that particular player' when you get into buying 'special' irreplaceable players, in the way skippy was for Real and Cesc is for Barca.

[eFestivals]

Is there not a point that a derisory offer from a "more glamourous" club may turn a players head?

Jags to Arse? Or by way of balance Benj lad... Reina to Arse?

While I also agree that a 10mill valuation of PJags is insulting there could be more to it than the initial "hands off you cheap kents" rejection it receives.

Anything is possible.

But I'm not seeing this offer in that way, I think it's just about getting one of a number of possible players for that position, with this offer a part of what sets the market price (as good as it gets in football, which isn't very good) for whichever player he ends up with.

It's probably more about trying to keep the price of that Bolton player low than Wenger wanting Jag and just Jag - tho presumably he'd have been happy to have Jag at £10M if Everton did accept the offer.

[Benj]

While I get where you're coming from - it's a stupidly low offer - it's not even in the same ball park.....

1. Wenger or his players haven't been going around saying that Jag wants to join Arsenal, that he's being held hostage, etc, etc.

2. any club is perfectly entitled to make any offer they fancy for any player, just as the selling club is entitled to tell them to bugger off if the offer is too low in their opinion. He's made an offer, it's been rejected - end of (unless he wants to go back with a bigger offer).

While you might (and I do) consider the offer to be derisory, he's still allowed to try his luck with it if he wants - and offers like this are actually needed at the end of the day, for there to be a form of market value for players, as the market value (the best as it gets in football, anyway) is set by the rejected offers as well as the accepted offers.

There's a difference between trying your luck at getting a bargain as Wenger has tried here and trying to force thru an unreasonable and already-rejected offer which Barca are trying to do.

[Benj]

Is there not a point that a derisory offer from a "more glamourous" club may turn a players head?

Jags to Arse? Or by way of balance Benj lad... Reina to Arse?

While I also agree that a 10mill valuation of PJags is insulting there could be more to it than the initial "hands off you cheap kents" rejection it receives.

[ampersand]

£10m for jagielka? It's about £9m too much

[Benj]

put him in my dream team. might be coming out if he's moving to arsenal. the scores from their defence was piss poor last year. and i don't expect them to do any better this term.

[eFestivals]

Fair points, he's mentioned in the past (perhaps not this year) though that Barcelona's offers have been embarassing yet he supposedly undercuts his own offer from a year ago.

I'm guessing that Jag has a year less on his contract this year compared to last, plus he's a year older (for youngsters that adds to value, but at 28 it works the other way), so there's all sorts of good reasons why the bid might be down - including Wenger thinking him less of a good player than he did a year ago.

I'd say that Wenger is very good compared to other managers at not talking about players - but that might be just because he buys so few 'names' anyway ..... But he's not infallible, and sometimes if the press ask him about a player (as they've tended to do in regard to defenders for the last couple of years) he feels he needs to answer - but even then it generally doesn't go much further than "he's a very good player" or "he's a player I like".

And actually, to be fair, I don't think there's too many managers who've been blabbing this summer - other than Barca, and Steve Bruce ... tho Barca actually have something interesting to say ..... and *if* Wesley ends up at Utd this summer then we'd have to add some cunning by Fergie to the list as well .

[Benj]

I'm guessing that Jag has a year less on his contract this year compared to last, plus he's a year older (for youngsters that adds to value, but at 28 it works the other way), so there's all sorts of good reasons why the bid might be down - including Wenger thinking him less of a good player than he did a year ago.

I'd say that Wenger is very good compared to other managers at not talking about players - but that might be just because he buys so few 'names' anyway ..... But he's not infallible, and sometimes if the press ask him about a player (as they've tended to do in regard to defenders for the last couple of years) he feels he needs to answer - but even then it generally doesn't go much further than "he's a very good player" or "he's a player I like".

And actually, to be fair, I don't think there's too many managers who've been blabbing this summer - other than Barca, and Steve Bruce ... tho Barca actually have something interesting to say ..... and *if* Wesley ends up at Utd this summer then we'd have to add some cunning by Fergie to the list as well .

[onemangang]

click manchester and the mirror on line are both saying man city have agree a 38mill deal with atletico madrid for sergio aguero. im not sure how true this is, but im pretty sure that city are in advanced talks with madrid.

i don't see any complications to the deal as kun is happy to go to manchester,& as we no madrid want a quick sale. with city happy to offer big bucks i could see this deal being wrapped up by the end of the weekend.

[Cardboard Box City]

Perhaps Barca's rationale is that if Arsenal keep Cesc they have a chance of over-hauling Barca within a few years, and Barca don't want that to be able to happen. Who knows, really? There's a thousand different possible motivations for Barca, but they're ultimately of little relevance - what is relevant is that they want Cesc, and just Cesc. There's no other player they would be happy to take in his place.

[strummer77]

Outside of that, they've got the second best Spanish keeper, Man United have the third, and Iker won't do a Figo.

Edited July 22, 2011 by strummer77

[strummer77]

Of the thousands of possibilities, being worried that Arsenal would usurp them is whatever-thousand on the list, and that’s a particularly insular view of the importance of English football.

[eFestivals]

Of the thousands of possibilities, being worried that Arsenal would usurp them is whatever-thousand on the list, and that’s a particularly insular view of the importance of English football.

I pulled that out as a possibility, not as something I particularly believed in.

But all the same, Arsenal are the closest of any team in Europe to being able to usurp Barca - despite Utd being stronger than Arsenal, they're further away from being able to get the better of Barca than Arsenal are.

[strummer77]

I pulled that out as a possibility, not as something I particularly believed in.

But all the same, Arsenal are the closest of any team in Europe to being able to usurp Barca - despite Utd being stronger than Arsenal, they're further away from being able to get the better of Barca than Arsenal are.

[TheGayTent]

He's proven himself fit after a bad injury since the last time and only signed a new 4 year contract in March! So if anything it should be the other way round.