77 replies to this topic

[William of Walworth]

Metcheck for Ottery now updated and thankfully that horrific 34 mm of rain shown for Saturday on yesterday's forecast, has now been lost.

But there'll be moderate rain every day if that forecast sticks. It'll be pretty cloudy -- I doubt we'll have more than a couole of hours of sunshine all weekend if there's as much cloud as that. And definitely on the chilly side (not 13C to 15C though -- that's Metcheck's usual comedy-low temperatures for you). So any mud will be very slow to dry out. A minor plus point is that wind speeds still seem light.

Latest synoptic chart for Saturday -- could scarcely be worse. Below 995 mb at this time of year is ridiculously low pressure :

Horrorshow!

I'm afraid I don't trust that ukweather forecast -- it's simply not consistent with the synoptics above, to be as dry as that.

Edited by William of Walworth, 12 August 2008 - 09:14 AM.

[HurrahBrother]

The only horror show I want to see all weekend is the "Texas chainsaw orchestra" (the gothabily swing ensemble, not the american power tool band).
But they are not booked!  

All the weather reports at best seems educated guesses.

Edited by HurrahBrother, 12 August 2008 - 10:35 AM.

[crewealexfan]

Metcheck for Ottery is currently showing less than 1 cm of rain over the whole weekend

Accuweather and Net Weather are predicting hardly anything either (sorry, no links)

Think we might get away with it?

[William of Walworth]

That's a MAJOR improvement! Unbelievable really.

Reluctant to pin hopes on it yet, but we'll see ...

Met Office's latest update (UK wide) still far from favourable for Saturday (although Friday now looks a fair bit better than they said before).

Stilll, watch this space tomorrow and Thursday.

Edited by William of Walworth, 12 August 2008 - 12:09 PM.

[William of Walworth]

I'm a maniac at minutely checking these things far too closely, especially when negative forecasts are still in the offing ... but ....

I am so not looking forward to the next update to Metcheck -- I've seen (over on Netweather) the updates to the GFS synoptic runs on which Metcheck base their forecasts.

Seems like the lunchtime projections on which the above positivity ws based, may be an outlier/rogue, and that forecasts may be reverting to type. We'll see how things translate locally though, we may?? still get a nice Friday. Perhaps!

Edited by William of Walworth, 12 August 2008 - 04:55 PM.

[cantwait4glasto]

William of Walworth, on Aug 12 2008, 05:55 PM, said:

I'm a maniac at minutely checking these things far too closely, especially when negative forecasts are still in the offing ... but ....

I am so not looking forward to the next update to Metcheck -- I've seen (over on Netweather) the updates to the GFS synoptic runs on which Metcheck base their forecasts.

Seems like the lunchtime projections on which the above positivity ws based, may be an outlier/rogue, and that forecasts may be reverting to type. We'll see how things translate locally though, we may?? still get a nice Friday. Perhaps!

I know what you mean William - I must have 8 different weather sites on my favourites at work currently which I cant stop looking at.  I keep an eye on this thread from work too but dont log in as we are not even supposed to use the internet.

Sun came out in Bristol this afternoon which gives me hope!

[cantwait4glasto]

William of Walworth, on Aug 12 2008, 05:55 PM, said:

I'm a maniac at minutely checking these things far too closely, especially when negative forecasts are still in the offing ... but ....

I am so not looking forward to the next update to Metcheck -- I've seen (over on Netweather) the updates to the GFS synoptic runs on which Metcheck base their forecasts.

Seems like the lunchtime projections on which the above positivity ws based, may be an outlier/rogue, and that forecasts may be reverting to type. We'll see how things translate locally though, we may?? still get a nice Friday. Perhaps!

And it seems right not to be looking forward. Looks like a washout on Sunday  

[http://www.metcheck....sp?eventID=725]

BTW can some one tell me how to post a link and call it something else - like in above posts?

Edited by cantwait4glasto, 12 August 2008 - 06:06 PM.

[William of Walworth]

This latest version of the Ottery forecast looks even worse.

32mm of rain FFS!!!!    

I'd allowed myself to hope that this afternoon's update had seen the back of extreme totals like that -- well over an inch ....

They fluctuate wildly. Lets hope things at least calm down in future runs.

Edited by William of Walworth, 12 August 2008 - 05:36 PM.

[cantwait4glasto]

William of Walworth, on Aug 12 2008, 06:35 PM, said:

This latest version of the Ottery forecast looks even worse.

32mm of rain FFS!!!!    

I'd allowed myself to hope that this afternoon's update had seen the back of extreme totals like that -- well over an inch ....

They fluctuate wildly. Lets hope things at least calm down in future runs.

Beg to differ - add up for Sun on link above is well over 50mm   

[William of Walworth]

cantwait4glasto, on Aug 12 2008, 06:58 PM, said:

Beg to differ - add up for Sun on link above is well over 50mm   

You're right!!    

Still, that amount is surely too extreme to be realitic/likely .... Metcheck have overcooked their rain totals before.

But far from impossible ....          

[crewealexfan]

William of Walworth, on Aug 12 2008, 07:02 PM, said:

You're right!!    

Still, that amount is surely too extreme to be realitic/likely .... Metcheck have overcooked their rain totals before.

But far from impossible ....          

Just now it's gone to 'nice on friday, bad on saturday and shit on sunday'

They are still winding us up aren't they?

(I blame Thatcher )

[William of Walworth]

The amounts of rain have downgraded slightly in this morning's update to Metcheck for Ottery, but Saturday is looking utterly vile -- 100% cloud, and rain all day.  Cold, too  (although not quite as chuffin' freexzing as Metcheck say, they ALWAYS underestimate temps).


YUCKSVILLE!!!             


On the faintly brighter side, Friday doesn't look too bad.

I've been on Netweather, and all the experts there are pretty much agreed that this weekend is doomed. Sorry folks <kills self>

Edited by William of Walworth, 13 August 2008 - 09:53 AM.

[lobez]

link

forget metcheck....im with the bbc

[5co77ie]

it's hammering down here - wear wellies

[catsta]

Gutted! bbc today say friday and sunday nice, with saturday rainy.
i chose this festie coz couldn't cope with mud and rain and thought it would be nice. And . . . Glasto was fine and b'd is mud. Maybe i'm Jinxed lol.
i shall keepin praying.

[William of Walworth]

Metcheck none too good for Sunday, now -- even worse than Saturday FFS!

Why there's such a discrepancy between the BBC and Metcheck, I'm not sure, but I've seen the detailed synoptics elsewhere, and pessimism should right now rule all the way I'm afraid. Bar Friday, which still looks alright to start with.

Here is the latest update to the Met Office Forecast for the South West specifically -- still seems to think Sunday won't be too bad, but late Friday and Saturday -- does Exeter count as West or East of region? -- still looking terrible.

Dry start to Friday. Good for putting tents up.

Final detailed update to follow tomorrow. I leave on my train of doom at 6:20 pm from Waterloo.

Edited by William of Walworth, 13 August 2008 - 03:06 PM.

[technowomble]

The descrepencies between the BBC and Metcheck are probably due to the unpredicatable nature of hte weather at hte moment. When I left home in Bristol this morning it was dryish, just after 9 it was absolutely tipping it down. At lunchtime it was sunny and the benches had even dried off enough to sit down, and now (4:20ish) it is back to tipping it down.

The barometer was looking a little better with respect to yesterday this morning, if that is really anything to go on.

I think for BD 2 years ago there was a really heavy downpour on Thursday night (to the point my roof leaked!) but then the rest of the weekend was actually rather nice. Lets hope a repeat of that. I trust the Levs have got plenty of straw and sawdust on back up for the footpaths!

[lobez]

William of Walworth, on Aug 13 2008, 04:04 PM, said:

Metcheck none too good for Sunday, now -- even worse than Saturday FFS!

Why there's such a discrepancy between the BBC and Metcheck, I'm not sure, but I've seen the detailed synoptics elsewhere, and pessimism should right now rule all the way I'm afraid. Bar Friday, which still looks alright to start with.

Here is the latest update to the Met Office Forecast for the South West specifically -- still seems to think Sunday won't be too bad, but late Friday and Saturday -- does Exeter count as West or East of region? -- still looking terrible.

Dry start to Friday. Good for putting tents up.

Final detailed update to follow tomorrow. I leave on my train of doom at 6:20 pm from Waterloo.

Excellent ...i'll be getting there about 6 on friday...just in time for the rain

[William of Walworth]

See ya there

The ever evolving updates to Metcheck for Ottery coninue (latest one, after 6 pm today).

Saturday now looking quite reasonable (amazingly), Sunday and especially Monday morning worse.

We seem to retain a fairly pleasant (albeit cloudy) Friday ,and have maybe lost the rain that was earlier on threatened for Fri., for later that day. That should cheer up early and late arrivals alike, if it comes off.

No doubt there'll be more changes tomorrow ...

Sunshine at an absolute premium throughout though, look at that cloud cover!    

Edited by William of Walworth, 13 August 2008 - 05:29 PM.

[catsta]

I'm staying optimistic. Today in totnes was meant to be terrible, heavy rain all day. however, we have had 3 showers and now have beautiful sunshine. It'll all be good guy's =)