Weather at Escot, 15-17 August

[Somerset Boy]

I'm quite happy with this one

[crewealexfan]

Strange orange symbols have appeared ona few sites for Sunday

[cantwait4glasto]

Just did a double take - not a nought.nought of a gnats knacker of rain Fri-Sun on Metcheck now.

Gonnabeagoodun

[William of Walworth]

I'm quite happy with this one

Edited August 11, 2008 by William of Walworth

[William of Walworth]

Grrr Metcheck (for Ottery) worsened now ... but I'm sure there'll be more changes ....

[William of Walworth]

And the Met Office update (UK wide, admittedly) is NOT being our friend ....

[HurrahBrother]

And the Met Office update (UK wide, admittedly) is NOT being our friend ....

[William of Walworth]

X rated synoptic output!!!

Not advisory for the sensitive ....

[cantwait4glasto]

Dont get that one William but guess green = bad

[William of Walworth]

Dont get that one William but guess green = bad

[Paul ™]

Hope it all works out for you guys, I know how brilliant a festival this is after the past 2 years (despite the mud last year) and hope you get some well deserved sun.

Shame I miss it this year, off to Holland tomorrow for a couple days in the 'Dam then to Lowlands Festival but plan to return to Escot in 2009

Have a good one

[technowomble]

Hmm, yeah, not looking too great that is for sure.

One (minor) consolation though is that two of the stages are in tents, so there will be some shelter.

Yeah, it'll be wet, but just remember your macs and your big boots. Alternatively, it is hot, just ya swimming cozy and flipflops.

[William of Walworth]

I'm always well prepared at festivals, because I attend a squilion a year. And yes, once you're there you always enjoy them anyway whatever the conditions

The problem is more psychological -- heavy rain at festivals is shite and should be banned ... anticipation of same is even worse -- especially when so many of your friends are 'bravely' giving you 'I enjoyed it all anyway' type accounts of how wet Endorse It was last Saturday.

(Awaiting that 30mm + of rain shown on that Ottery link -- update posted at 18:20 Monday -- to be downgraded. By a lot! But that may not happen ... )

Edited August 11, 2008 by William of Walworth

[quisling]

Kinder forecast here .........

http://uk.weather.com/weather/10day-Ottery-St-Mary-UKXX1562

[5co77ie]

Went up to the site yesterday on the way back from endorse It - it's still pretty much ok - the ground is a bit soft - expecting a lot more rain - wear wellies.

[William of Walworth]

Metcheck for Ottery now updated and thankfully that horrific 34 mm of rain shown for Saturday on yesterday's forecast, has now been lost.

But there'll be moderate rain every day if that forecast sticks. It'll be pretty cloudy -- I doubt we'll have more than a couole of hours of sunshine all weekend if there's as much cloud as that. And definitely on the chilly side (not 13C to 15C though -- that's Metcheck's usual comedy-low temperatures for you). So any mud will be very slow to dry out. A minor plus point is that wind speeds still seem light.

Latest synoptic chart for Saturday -- could scarcely be worse. Below 995 mb at this time of year is ridiculously low pressure :

Horrorshow!

I'm afraid I don't trust that ukweather forecast -- it's simply not consistent with the synoptics above, to be as dry as that.

Edited August 12, 2008 by William of Walworth

[HurrahBrother]

The only horror show I want to see all weekend is the "Texas chainsaw orchestra" (the gothabily swing ensemble, not the american power tool band).

But they are not booked!

All the weather reports at best seems educated guesses.

Edited August 12, 2008 by HurrahBrother

[crewealexfan]

Metcheck for Ottery is currently showing less than 1 cm of rain over the whole weekend

Accuweather and Net Weather are predicting hardly anything either (sorry, no links)

Think we might get away with it?

[William of Walworth]

That's a MAJOR improvement! Unbelievable really.

Reluctant to pin hopes on it yet, but we'll see ...

Met Office's latest update (UK wide) still far from favourable for Saturday (although Friday now looks a fair bit better than they said before).

Stilll, watch this space tomorrow and Thursday.

Edited August 12, 2008 by William of Walworth

[William of Walworth]

I'm a maniac at minutely checking these things far too closely, especially when negative forecasts are still in the offing ... but ....

I am so not looking forward to the next update to Metcheck -- I've seen (over on Netweather) the updates to the GFS synoptic runs on which Metcheck base their forecasts.

Seems like the lunchtime projections on which the above positivity ws based, may be an outlier/rogue, and that forecasts may be reverting to type. We'll see how things translate locally though, we may?? still get a nice Friday. Perhaps!

Edited August 12, 2008 by William of Walworth

[cantwait4glasto]

I'm a maniac at minutely checking these things far too closely, especially when negative forecasts are still in the offing ... but ....

I am so not looking forward to the next update to Metcheck -- I've seen (over on Netweather) the updates to the GFS synoptic runs on which Metcheck base their forecasts.

Seems like the lunchtime projections on which the above positivity ws based, may be an outlier/rogue, and that forecasts may be reverting to type. We'll see how things translate locally though, we may?? still get a nice Friday. Perhaps!

[cantwait4glasto]

I'm a maniac at minutely checking these things far too closely, especially when negative forecasts are still in the offing ... but ....

I am so not looking forward to the next update to Metcheck -- I've seen (over on Netweather) the updates to the GFS synoptic runs on which Metcheck base their forecasts.

Seems like the lunchtime projections on which the above positivity ws based, may be an outlier/rogue, and that forecasts may be reverting to type. We'll see how things translate locally though, we may?? still get a nice Friday. Perhaps!

Edited August 12, 2008 by cantwait4glasto

[William of Walworth]

This latest version of the Ottery forecast looks even worse.

32mm of rain FFS!!!!

I'd allowed myself to hope that this afternoon's update had seen the back of extreme totals like that -- well over an inch ....

They fluctuate wildly. Lets hope things at least calm down in future runs.

Edited August 12, 2008 by William of Walworth

[cantwait4glasto]

This latest version of the Ottery forecast looks even worse.

32mm of rain FFS!!!!

I'd allowed myself to hope that this afternoon's update had seen the back of extreme totals like that -- well over an inch ....

They fluctuate wildly. Lets hope things at least calm down in future runs.

[William of Walworth]

Beg to differ - add up for Sun on link above is well over 50mm