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kerplunk

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Everything posted by kerplunk

  1. Yes it's been a warm and wet winter and this is the expected trend Not a record breaker though on either count
  2. Right so in festival time - that's a bit different
  3. Slightly surprised by this. We visited the site last september and asked permission from the office. As part of their advice (remember it's a working farm - don't run away from the cows!) they asked us not to publicise our visit on social media as they didn't want to encourage it
  4. The ONI index is a rolling 3 month index of sea surface temps in a fairly small area in the pacific. The NDJ value was 2.0 and the DJF value was 1.8 It's not a good idea to over interpret every twitch in the global means vs ONI index. The data is lumpy and there are lags involved and also, as you can see from the graph, there is a seasonality to global mean SST - it usually peaks around now. That's what made that record breaking peak last august (which has now been surpassed) so remarkable - it was the 'wrong' time of year for record breaking sea temps. The reason global mean SST peaks around now is pretty straightforward - most of the ocean is in the southern hemisphere and it's the end of summer down there I would agree though that El Nino alone can't explain the record breaking global obs eg the record warm north atlantic which isn't a characteristic of El Nino and was notably warm already before EL Nino developed last year.
  5. Isn't that more about coal and trees, rather than oil and animals? Most of the coal was formed in the 'Carboniferous' I think
  6. If it results in less biomass in live trees then yes you're right of course, but if it's sustainably managed forest you would be chopping down the trees in an area planted decades ago and then replanting, and so on. Like any other crop I realise I'm talking 'in an ideal world' with that and there needs to be good scrutiny of the supply chains to ensure best practice and that might not be happening as well as it should but the basic principle is sound enough.
  7. I think it's great, lots of good stuff there for me and happily lots that I'm looking forward to seeing for the first time, and new (to me) bands to look into which is how I like it
  8. Well I certainly 'deny' the sea level rise by 2100 map you posted. Note that I haven't asked your for a source for that - it's just obviously unsupportable so it would be a waste of time asking. To put you straight on where I'm at on climate change and hopefully avoid wasting your time with more misconceptions I consider myself a well above average all round knowledgable about climate science layman reflecting a lot of time spent reading up on the subject. I've racked up ~7000 posts on the giant motoring forum pistonheads.com arguing with deniers and sceptics there over the last 18yrs or so (same username) Right onwards "El Nino effects will not effect the world fully until mid 2024 so 2023 has little or nothing to do with it - but as always, facts for you are to be ingnored" Yes that's what everyone was saying in early 2023 when the unusually long 3yr La Nina conditions in the pacific were finally coming to an end and El Nino was forecasted to form in 2023. Nobody expected 2023 to set a new record - the expectation was that probably 2024 would. The run of large margin record breaking global temps since the middle of last year have been quite astonishing and has caused a lot of head scratching and and a variety of post hoc explainations have been put forward. It's El Nino It's because of the unusually long preceding La Nina 'charging up' the oceans It's the shipping fuel sulphur regulations cleaning the sky and China cleaning up it's coal burning act It's the Hunga Tonga eruption which shot a load of water vapour into the stratosphere. Solar cycle 25 is at maximum Saharan dust has been unusually low Whether 2024 temps will go on to exceed 2023 is anyone's guess - but it'll be another warm year for sure. Regardless, the fact global temps have spiked to 1.5 above pre-industrial mark doesn't mean it will stay that high and therefore it can't be said to have happened 10yrs sooner than predicted - yet
  9. 25 years? Difficult to understand then how you came to be posting laughably absurd sea level rise predictions. Up your game - it's embarassing!
  10. No support there for your 10yrs sooner than thought claim. Where you're going wrong is the 1.5c above pre-industrial prediction isn't for when a short term el nino enhanced periods might hit that mark. If that was the case it happened already in 2016
  11. Right, I think I'll just disregard your claim as unsupported
  12. Which 10yrs sooner than thought 1990's predictions are you referring to here?
  13. Except it's a bonkers wildly unrealistic and unsupportable outlook. Appears to be what the UK would look like if all the ice sheets on earth melted completely causing sea levels to rise by 70m. Even if the world warmed enough for that to happen (quite unlikely) it would take many thousands of years.
  14. It's just a fact of life now that everyone has a bloody camera in their pocket isn't it. As a gig photographer, and therefore an expert, I have the added annoyance of seeing people taking photos at the wrong moments - when the lighting isn't good or half of the band have their backs turned. Tsk so amateurish. Of course, all of MY phone-cam pics are ace and well worth it 😁
  15. Damn I've been taking a perverse pleasure out of having lost count but that made it too easy (same years as you)
  16. Not sure if it's still the case but it used to have a rep for being a bad place to be in a muddy one
  17. Cheeky sods - of course hospitaility tix get you into hospitailty camping (which is nothing special).
  18. A cautionary note to add to that - hospitality tickets are often offered for sale by scammers so be highly sceptical of people purporting to have surplus hospitality tickets for sale
  19. The current system is on the verge of being broken - exciting stuff. Maybe, but the big thing missing here is 'good data' on what exactly is happening on ticket day. Where did you get your all-seeing eye? Has it really got significantly worse or is the main problem that it is simply increasingly over subscribed? When was 'peak fairness' in the ticket buying system btw. What year was that? 🙂
  20. It makes my head spin trying to think through the knock-on consequences of a ballot system - and not just for the 'vibe' I bet it would for the organisors too and for that reason they're unlikely to go for it - too difficult to predict the consequences. Better the devil you know
  21. These other ballotted events - are they single ticket only entries or multiple?
  22. 'Eavis doesn't mind' was a common trope to justify it which maybe had some validity when it was on a smaller scale, but like I said it had become a national sport - with Radio 1 DJs announcing when the fence was down on national radio (cheers Jo!). After the fest in 2000 Michael declared there would be no fest in 2001 and pretty squarely pointed his finger at the fence jumping so that was the end of that trope.
  23. Well let's just say it wasn't exactly a bed of roses between people who bought tickets which paid for the festival and money to the good causes etc, and people who didn't but thought they were the heart and soul of the party. Especially when people had had their whole tents stolen - that happened a lot. It had got out of hand and become a national sport and there was an obliviousness from some about the threat it had become to the future of the fest. Eavis doesn't mind! Others could see the writing on the wall and it had to stop. And so - arguments and recriminations!
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